South Central Kansas, Harper County | garvo - 3/20/2013 07:26
Wow-the market bites-been hedging some cattle at $1.25(fats) I think we have set a perfect storm-dollar higher,oversea's demand(zilch)consumers here tapped out-and all the guys on the ship predicting $1.40 fats-now the really bad new's-backrounder;s and cow men sending feeder's to a feedlot without any hedges on those cattle that will be fat in 120 day's-and corn(which everone tells me fat cattle dont eat) is going higher-called 4 commercial feedlots-didn't find any corn under $7.50 nor anything that comes close-most cost of gain pushing $1.25 per #-she's gonna take gross dollars to withstand this storm!
Good indication of trouble to come-cattle are gaining really good-had 1 pen of 500#heifers-gaining 2.5# a day on a corn silage-soyhull ration,limit feed-ok-they were running to the bunk twice a day and had the bunks lick clean 1/2 hour after feeding,runninhihred stopped to see me and asked if I had done chores yet as the pen's bunks were licked clean or if I had forgot to feed that pen>
All my bad- notes point to $1.14 fats-cost of gain @ $1.25 and the consumer waiting for specials on meat-my happy notes-a blip,demand picks up and we rally the market back to $1.30 and futures come back to that $1.30 plus side-------one things for sure there be a lot of sellers @ $1.30-live and futures,maybe those $1000 calves will need to back up $100-$150 or it wont matter for a feeder guy?
Don't know what is worse-cowman feeding his calves out--(-$100)
back-grounder feeding them out -(-$100-$200)
normal cattle feeder losing ($100-$250)
Hedging cattle this last week in territory I did not want to visit,lets hope spring comes soon!
Checked a couple of feedlots looking for a home for my sons 800# steers last week, and cost of gains were anywhere from $1.19-$1.25, and as you indicated, all corn was $7.50 plus. Made the decision to feed them a little longer ourselves for another 30-40 days, and see what happens. Our COG is less than the feedlots, so might buy us some time. Hedged some in earlier, would like to lift them, if I see a bottom, but haven't seen one yet. Although, fats are looking on the positive side today. I would sure take that $1.30 in August for the fats, where do I sign up? :-) |
market bites-is $100 fats possiable
