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Seymour, IL | use for the land....
I took a different approach to acres and totals (and may be flamed for it so...)
99mil acres at 91% harvested.....90.09 mil harvested at 157 average gets you 14.14 B bushels
90.09 at 150 (10 year average) still gets you 13.51B
(on a side note...being from the land of Lincoln would expect to see ave yield of 162 based on trend)
we initially planted 97 last year, don't think that 2M (or more?) acres could be picked up from wheat or ground coming out of CRP? I do and that is how I got to 99. What is the next best use for the land...typically won't let it sit idle if production possibilities.....
we can debate the weather, yields, etc. my 157 comes from straight math...tried to post the chart but cannot....(excel doesn't copy and paste here?) Can see something similar at KSU
IF we really raise 14, 5.90 could look pretty good, even though it doesn't seem to look so good right now.
In the big pix from what I have read from KSU, UIUC, and others,( http://www.agmanager.info/marketing/outlook/newletters/Corn.asp) only a 20% probability of below trend yields...not that it can't happen, but what are the odds?
I personally don't like what is being offered (about 5.70 cash for fall) but fear it could get worse if things start to go well
99 doesn't look too out of line from here
bryon | |
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2013 Corn Outlook, does $5.90 buy enough bushels?
