Nebraska aka the boondocks | Okay, where do these numbers come from? "the chance of a big crop." What percentage is a chance? Seems to me, since it is true for my farm, that would be the "chance" that I have no hail, no drought, no flood, no frost or freeze when I don't want it, a warm moist seed bed, no green snap, and the list goes on. Last time that happened for me, never. Last year I had a lot of good corn, many fields did 235 plus, some even better. I had some soybeans do almost 90 bu., but.... I had hail on some others, ran out of water on some others and then the wind finished off my last 80 so it yielded 105. At the end of the day i had 191 corn and 67 bu. beans, and low and behold that is my 10 year avg. So when someone says that there is a good chance of a large crop, over 160 or even 170, I really find that hard to believe, because mother nature never cooperates on a large enough scale to allow that. This year, with subsoil like a dusted mummy, how will the crops develop an "adequate" root system? How will the moisture pentrate deep enough fast enough? And yet, here we sit with new crop in its usual spot, planning on perfect conditions on 100 million acres, scaring the crap out of everyone. Perhaps the old adage is true, "fools rush in." or "a young bull said to the old bull, 'I am gonna run down there and get a cow,' and the old bull said, 'i am gonna walk down there and take the whole herd." |
chances of a big crop...
