I would hope not. But when I hear myself say that it reminds me of a saying popular with a one time part time college employee that worked for us while attending school. When he had mentioned in front of his dad something about hoping or wishing for something his dad's standard reply is  something on the nature (I'm paraphrasing) " you can wish in one hand and crap (not his exact word) in the other and see which one gets filled first". So hope by his standards is not a good thing to rely on.

I have stated many times on here that if we continue on the current path we are on without a course change (1. big debt 2. big deficits 3. printing money to cover the deficits) then hyperinflation is a mathematical certainty. The only question is not if but when. And the when part could be anything from tomorrow to twenty years from now. In other words nobody knows.

Having said that, no I don't think hyperinflation is the most likely outcome. But as long as we continue the course we are on I am not willing to dismiss the possibility like most will.

The idea is that at some point policy will change so the deficits become manageable, enough debt is repudiated so the debt load becomes bearable, and the economy will be able to continue on until some future date when we face the same demons again.

In a debt based system where nearly all the money is created as a debt obligation and where there is never enough money to cover all the debt liabilities along with interest, it is an inherently unsustainable system. The money supply has to expand to cover the additional interest obligation or deflation and a shortage of money sets in (the banks end up with the money via interest as opposed to non-fractional reserve lending where lending is based on savings instead of debt).

My best guess? We will have a big devaluation. There will be a big scare of some sort and the legislature will get temporary religion. Savers will get massacred and the imprudent will benefit from inflation. The banking system will continue to get subsidized via savers footing the bill till they are whole and solvent. And we will go for another go-round, the public none the wiser.

John