hmm..  Okay here goes.

The most relevant number to me was the corn stocks.. as of Dec 1st USDA found 8,030,474,000 bushels of corn.. which was about 180 mln bushels BELOW the Average trade guess and the smallest Dec 1st number since 7,954 mln on store in 03. 

Of this.. USDA says 57% was "on farm".. which appears to be a little below the average.. of around 65% (makes sense given a drought.. I know I didn't have as much as "normal" in my bins this year..)  USDA's "off farm" number of 3,444,474,000 is usually pretty accurate as most of that is reported monthly.. so the guess work is in the "on farm" number of 4.586 bil bushels.  THIS is the number that get's slapped around a bit as it's generally not scaled (i.e. not weighed.. just augered into a bin).. and until farmers "haul it to town" we don't really know what it is..(??)  We generally know what is in town.. and what historical averages are.. and that's how USDA (probably..) comes up with this number.

"Okay" works for me.. I'll buy that.

Keep in mind though.. that farmers can be "unpredictable" and things like test weight, spoilage, damage, etc can enter into that equation.  But I believe that USDA gets a bum wrap on the "now you see it.. now you don't" change in the stocks report... in fact.. at only 57%.. that is a pretty low number for this time of year.. even in 03.. it turns out that number was around 63% (if my sources are correct...??) so if the REAL number was 63%.. hmmm.. then the on farm number could be...about 500 million bushels larger...???  Wow..!!  I don't believe USDA would be off that much.. but they "could" be off a couple hundred million.. the 100 to 300 miln bushel range.. ALSO maybe 57% isn't small enough..??  Yikes could be even tighter..??

Naw..  I'm gonna guess that USDA is on the "conservative" side of prudence.. (it's what I would do..) and guess that they will be on the slightly lighter side... of the mark.. if not spot on... and nobody is perfect.

Sure there's guys with more grain then normal.. probably in the upper Mid West.. RRV and Minn.. and also probably some guys who really came up short.. in the heart of the drought areas.. some who maybe still need to buy grain in...??? to cover expected contracts.. (gulp).

Okay so what does this mean going forward?

At 10,780 mil bu production.. plus 989 carry in and 100 imports (going up?) = 11,869 Total Supply.

On the Demand side of the ledger.. USDA cut Exports by 200 from 1,150 to 950.. which would be the smallest number in... golly my records don't go back that far.. we only did 1,348 back in 93/94.. probably have to go back to the 70's for a smaller number...?? 

HOWEVER, USDA ADDED 300 to feed useage.. to 4,450.. more in line with last year's 4,547 number.. but certainly the smallest feed since 89/90's 4,401.. Now granted.. since we're crushing 4,500 as Ethanol and getting around a third of that back as DDG's.. some of which comes back as domestic feed.. (and some exported..)

Everything else looks pretty routine.. coming up with the final carry-out of 602.

I went back and looked at my hunches and guesses.. such as this..

http://talk.newagtalk.com/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=351793&posts=27#M2761334

and given the surprisingly (to me) low winter wheat plantings number of.. 41.8  Although it is higher than last year's 41.3..  2013 HRW at only 29.1 vs 2012 at 29.9.. It's the soft wheat at 9.4 vs 8.1 in 2012 where the expansion came from.. probably over in the Southern Illinois/Mizzou areas...???

Anywho.. I guess maybe we really are gonna see an expansion.. or try.. in corn acreage for 2013.. ??

Anywho.. Throwing the dart AGAIN at the 2013 crop dartboard.. see if things are any clearer now...???

I'll add half a miln acres to my planting guess.. at 98.5.. and assume that we harvest a higher percentage.. at 92% vs 90% this year.. gets us harvested acreage of 90.62.. (not a big change..) The real kicker is gonna be Yields...  Sure Illinois is looking better.. and with some carry-over fertility you usually get a kick in yields.. so say Illinois comes back online... but man that drought monitor map still looks UGLY.. especially for Nebraska.. so I still think 140'ish.. being more gracious.. 145 bu National Average Yield is gonna be a stretch..

Crunching.. that gets us JUST over 13 bil at 13.140.. plus.. I'm gonna assume now that we're gonna see some more on imports.. probably both here in 2012/13 and 13/14.. so upping the carry-in.. with 250 of extra farmer stocks and 35 imports = carry-in of 887 + 13,140 + 120 imports = 14,147 Total supply

Still.. it's all in the yields.. we only did 123.4 this year.. even if you add 15 bu back that's ONLY 138.. or a 12.500 crop.. We've only gone over 145 bu yields.. Eight (8) times in history.. AND.. we're planting.. almost 20 mil acres MORE than we did a decade ago..  I don't believe we've added 20 mil acres of PRIME cornbelt production ground.. it's probably gonna come more.. from the fringe.. lower producing areas.. (although some has come out of the Core Cornbelt..) or mostly in between.. sounds like the Dakota's.. RRV.. and CRP acres.. pasture is where this 20 mil acres are coming from...???  (that's probably a new thread right there...)

Bottom line..

Okay so what I'm driving at.. is that I believe the USDA reports.. (chuckle.. a farmer complimenting USDA.. enjoy it while ya can guys.. ;-)  And the numbers "can" work going forward.. but golly it's gonna be real tight.. EVEN if the weather improves.. So...

(man I know I'm gonna get kicked off the board now..)

I'm even gonna agree with Ray Jenkins.. (sigh.. USDA and now Ray J.. one more strike and I'm outta here..)

"uh-hum"

That we're probably gonna have to keep an eye on the ethanol grind..

Or more correctly..


"It MIGHT be in ethanol producers BEST INTEREST.. to VOLUNTARILY.. restrain their grinds.. to allow MAXIMUM available CUSHION.. for other corn users such as livestock.. and Probably even Exporters...


(I am however. keeping my rights to DISAGREE/Argue/Conjort/Sneer at.. or otherwise. be "a pain on the boards" to Sat.. and Tara... Heck.. can't get that THIRD Strike...lol.) 

Anywho.. you boys up there in the Dakota's, RRV and Minnesota better "Lean into it" this year.. cause if we're gonna pull this one out.. the ball's probably in your guy's court...  And given the Direction of the drought monitor maps..???  It "might" be a little dry.. although for you guys..???  Maybe that isn't all bad..??

Hopefully, we'll get some just in time rains here.. to help things along.

From an energy production perspective.. ethanol was first to the rescue..  Going from 6 Billion gallons..  or just under 400 mln bbls per day in 07.. to over 900 k bbls per day last year.. a 500 k bbls per day increase.  The Petro boys are finally catching up.. (bought time..)

For the Petro boys to do what etoh did.. at 300 bbls per day per well.. and a 50% success rate..   That's kicking 3,333 wells out.. at $1.5 miln per pop.. (a total pulling that # out from somewhere guess where... conventionals can run around $450 k.. and Horizontals over 3+ mil..) that's over 5 Billion.. in investment right there boys.  (who needs Vegas?)

Plus they have to fight the depletion curve on the existing inventory.. as well as develop new growing production... "have at it."

So it's been a "job well done" in my book...

I've talked about other energy dynamics before.. so I'l sign off now.. I still think we need to work together with the Petro boys.. adjust to more NGL's.. which Butane will be going away here in a few months..until next winter.. and the pressure will be back on ethanol to carry the load.. now is the time to squeeze back on the throttle a little.. then hope for a good growing season to bring us into the 2013 crop.  Yal baby!!  BRING IT!!

Someday we're gonna bust another 165 bu corn crop.. WITH a higher harvest rate.. say 94%.. on 99 miln acres.. that would be over 15.3 bil bushels.. THEN we could EXPORT 2.4 Bil.. Feed 5,800..  and with 1,400 for other uses.. STILL CRUSH FULL BORE at ??? 5,500 AND ADD to Carry out...

THAT DAY.. is coming.. just a question of WHEN?

2013...??  probably better chances in 14 or 15...

fwiw..

"Cheers"

edit add: to clean up and fix a few things.. "always something.."