I think I am on about the same page as you Hay. Another thing that his logic told him was concerning the gold miners being crazy if they did not lock in a profit going forward for many years if they had very good positive margins. He acted as if that would be a done deal. I think his extremely logical mind sometimes ignores the human (less than logical) element. Barric tried this a few years back and finally had to cry uncle when the margin got into the billions. His argument only makes sense if you also take his assumption that prices of stuff will go down (deflation and the price of gold going down with other commodities). So his matter of fact "they will do this" I think is predicated on his deflation theory and ignores what companies might actually do. Based on the companies recent experience, I don't see any of them jumping at the chance to sell their product years forward. Shareholders don't like it too good when all the potential profit is being eaten up by margin calls while the cost of production rises eating up all the supposed locked in profit. They have been there, done that. I give this as an example not because it is a big deal but just as an example of how sometimes he goes down a tangent and that tangent is the focus of how all the rest of his pieces fit together. So that is where I don't always agree with him. He does not allow much for alternatives of what he thinks will happen should some of his assumptions be wrong.

But overall I really like his thinking and what he has to say. It causes a person to think, and that is the most important thing, for a person to come to his own decision based on an array of potential outcomes.

John