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hoosier | IMO there is more downside risk than upside potential. Ethanol industry is not a guarantee to use 4.5 mil bu. I think there is a good possibility that could get curbed. There are already feeders in the SE importing corn from SA. Ask Mark Wright about the dairy slaughter pace and the cost to the dairyman. If you also look at the spreads right now there is not enough carry for the commercial to carry it either. Their only hope right now is for a basis appreciation unless they somehow were smart enough to see the drought coming and lock in carry last winter. It's all pure speculation but right now it doesn't look like it make too much sense to carry it forward. Time will tell though. | |
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Just an observation.
