There's a couple of decent stories out there which I believe are relevant to the markets..  First off is this article in the New York Times..

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/17/business/energy-environment/us-reliance-on-saudi-oil-is-growing-again.html?_r=1&pagewanted=all

Which explores the reasons why the US is importing MORE Crude from a volatile Middle East year on year.. primarily from Saudi Arabia.  Complete with graphics..

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/08/16/business/global/importing-more-oil-from-middle-east.html?ref=energy-environment

Even though total imports into this Country are basically going lower.. due to stagnant to slightly softer demand (just under 19 mil b/d) and a resurgence in Domestic production.. Imports from Saudi Arabia are up.. almost.. 500 k b/d over the past... say 30 months and spiking about 20% YoY.. 

The article points to declining production and imports from Mexico, as well as lower then expected development of the Gulf of Mexico production due to the BP spill in 2010 and the year long moratorium on drilling.. gulf production is down about 700 k b/d vs expectations. 

As well as infrastructure constraints of getting crude out of the Bakken and Canada keeping a lid on alternatives.. the Article also points out that lower growth in other parts of the World vs expectations for demand.. aka China.. and that the US was the benefactor of that unrealized market.. for now..  (wonder how long that will last..??)

Following up on the Time's article was an editorial from the Denver Post..

http://www.denverpost.com/opinion/ci_21338979/editorial-must-u-s-rely-saudi-oil?

Saying that we should be more self-reliant on North American production including the completion of the Keystone XL pipeline so that we could diversify our source of supply to a more friendly region.. (and one that doesn't have to ship Crude through the straits of Hormuz..) as well as drilling in the Gulf which by their estimation could add another million bbls per day along with the tight Crude producers in Texas and North Dakota.

Robert Rapier over on R-Squared Energy tv says that increased ethanol prices (up about $.60) is indeed "a" cause of rising gasoline prices.. but not a major one as at the 10% level that should only account for about $.06 per gallon... (nevermind the fact that alternatives to ethanol are higher priced.. so would NO ethanol cause gasoline prices to go even higher?  Guess I'll ask him THAT question..)   He also covers the refinery fire out at Richmond and some of it's effects.

http://www.consumerenergyreport.com/2012/08/16/how-ethanol-and-the-chevron-refinery-fire-impact-gas-prices-r-squared-energy-tv-ep-27/#comment-129931

Meanwhile over on another part of Robert's linked site.. Andrew Holland takes government reporting of US Crude Oil reserves to task as overly complex... which makes having an honest debate on US Energy Policy.. difficult and confusing.. good point.

http://www.consumerenergyreport.com/2012/08/16/will-the-u-s-run-out-of-oil-in-8-years/

I thought that Chris Nelder's reply was informative.. including a couple of his links.. such as this one which points out the over counting of Domestic Crude Oil production as a motor fuel.. including ethanol which is a big component.

http://www.getreallist.com/fuel-to-byrne.html

As well as many Domestic Energy enthusiasts over-estimation of Natural Gas supplies..

http://www.getreallist.com/do-we-really-have-100-years-worth-of-shale-gas.html

Anywho.. irregardless of actual supply.. the cake is pretty well baked that ethanol production is going to struggle to maintain current levels at least until we can grow a larger corn crop.  And I'll conclude this post with a couple of interesting takes on the dynamics of who could benefit..

One link talked about Buffet pouring investment $$$ into a couple of refiners.. one was Phillips 66 which was spun off it's parent company last year..

http://seekingalpha.com/article/809971-the-value-of-phillips-66

and the other one.. (too many links.. must have closed it) was Valero.

edit add: it was this one..  http://seekingalpha.com/article/814641-buffett-is-right-about-these-2-oil-refiners

the new sales pump must be "psst did you hear Buffett is buying..."

hmmm..

probably need to add my disclaimer:  "This is NOT a solicitation to trade.. people can and do lose $$$ trading commodities and STOCKS.. blah blah blah." 

Anyway.. alot of the move from these articles may already be baked into the stock price by now...???

I just thought it was interesting.  IF indeed Buffett has done all this.. first he bought the BNSF..

http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/2009-11-03-berkshire-bnsf-buffett_N.htm 

Which is well positioned to be an alternative shipper of Crude out of the Bakken.. and now he's adding refiners to the mix (??)  either that or he's buying everything and these two are just coincidental...  But golly it makes sense to me.. (maybe Warren is a NAT reader..??)  Lol..  anywho.. interesting..

So as we realize a smaller crop.. and domestic source stock for ethanol supply shrinks further.. how are we going to make that up?  Saudi Crude.. Domestic Tight Oil..  Canadian Oil Sands.. Gulf of Mexico.. Brazilian SugarCane Ethanol..  or F) All of the above.. ??

I still think my print RIN's is a viable solution to throttle back the corn ethanol grind while preserving US Corn demand "for another day."  It's possible that by doing this ethanol refiners would realize a larger margin which would actually make the whole endeavor profitable.. at least from the macro view... as a cheaper source stock would then be converted into a more expensive saleable product.. though at a reduced volume....

jmho though.. I could be wrong.

"cheers."