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Central Iowa | I love that a third of this thread was devoted to debating weather MT said 5 weeks or 5 months. Anyhow, forecast for south of I80 for Iowa definitely was not reassuring tonight. Part of me says we can hold on here for another week or two and we will get bailed out by some rain events. We are seeing just a bit of visible stress but it is important to realize that it's not very common for corn to roll in this area or show a lot of stress. Noticable stress certainly is abnormal, the question remains what does it mean for our yield right now. Obviously if we see no pattern change into tassle there will be big problems. I would say if it turns wet we have HUGE yield potential, if it turns normal we have average potential, if it stays dry the outcome is obvious. I don't know what the trade is using to set direction on new crop corn but it will be very interesting to see how the trade reacts if we see another sizeable drop in crop ratings next week. If, and that's a big if, we get into July and yield loss is probable will the trade react or will it take till the combines roll to trade actual lower yields. It just feels like the trade will need to see concrete evidence of reduced production before they push the market higher. Being patient may be the biggest challenge if the market softens into late summer even if a shorter crop is apparent. | |
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i am not sure.........
