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SESD Sious Falls | OIC, you are trying to prove your point by using a very small data set, but you continue to ignore what has already been stated: it is not impossible to hit trend with humongous acres, it is less likely.
As an example, imagine your farm is a microcosm of the whole corn belt. At a given pricr level, you first devote your acres best suited to corn to be planted to corn. As the price of corn rises and as the profit potential increases you would expand your acreage of corn to include less suitable land. You would go more corn on corn, you would tear up pasture and you would plant more marginal areas of the farm.
At 96 million acres of corn we are pushing the marginal and COC acres to a point that will increase the chances of a lower overall average yield.
We apparently do agree more about the yield guesstimate at this point being in the high 150's. 166 is a pipe dream. | |
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Simplistic USDA Statisticians
