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JonSCKs
Posted 3/30/2012 08:50 (#2312811 - in reply to #2312456)
Subject: hmmm..??


I was just commenting in response to the article that Ray J linked which talked about how tough it has been for refineries especially those who rely upon imports of Crude here in the US.

Brent Crude is seen as more of a proxy (currently) than West Texas Intermediate for "world prices."  Brent is trading...??  I believe in London.. whereas NYMEX would be New York and WTI is delivered at Cushing Oklahoma.  Normally WTI is at a premium as it is a higher quality.. lower sulfur.. easier to refine Crude.  Brent is based more on North Sea production which has been in decline.. and since the European market is reliant upon imports.. Brent is in a tighter market.. (or something.. ??)

Currently Brent is trading at about an $18 premium to WTI.. This is partly because WTI at Cushing is backing up as we "used" to ship Crude north from the Gulf into Cushing.. now with domestic Crude production increasing.. we are turning things upside down and Cushing is being flooded with cheaper.. (if you can call $100+ Crude cheap..?!?) domestic produced Crude from places like the Bakken and the Mid Continent.. (and others..)

Basically because of logistics.. domestic Crude is cheaper than imported crude.. This is the reason given for the tight margins at refineries on the East coast and the gulf.. and I ASSUME (??) the reason that Valero had such a tough go in the 4th quarter.. Ray J's article article mentions Valero.. ideling a refinery in Aurba.. which is totally dependent upon higher imports..  Actually I believe the 4th quarter for ethanol was pretty good.. so Valero.. which bought a healthy number (10..??) of the Vera Sun plants in Bk after the 08 bust.. should have done "pretty good"  with their upper midwest ethanol plants.  As I recall Valero has most of it's refining along the coasts..

hmmm..

http://www.valero.com/OurBusiness/Pages/Home.aspx

Valero has 16 refineries with 2 mbpd of capacity.. (hmmm 2 million x $120/bbl = lol.. wow it ONLY takes $240 MILLION $$$ of Crude per DAY.. to keep them humming... plus the corn for 10 ethanol plants...) anyway.. Valero is a "pretty big" player in the energy market.. they might even be the largest refiner in the country.. I believe that to be true but not sure..  ??

http://www.valero.com/OurBusiness/OurLocations/Pages/Home.aspx

Golly happy your making my head hurt already.. need more java..

Everyone worried about "Big Oil" moving into the ethanol market but I believe Valero came to the rescue.. sure bailed out a bunch of corn producers who had inventory sold.. (probably not all.. idk..??) It was too bad that VeraSun went down.. I liked them also.. but.. anyway.. at least Valero was there to pick up the pieces.. and Valero is more of a middle man.. I don't believe they produce much if any crude.. so they are TOTALLY reliant upon FARMERS... and Oil Producers to keep them going..

So in my book that would give them the White hat.. if this was a Western Movie..

Valero's stock has moved higher since last fall.. in fact in Oct 2011.. VLO traded around $18 and yesterday it closed above $26.. so.. that's all I know.. about them.  I just believe that when 2 mbpd of refining capacity goes bad.. it could affect other operations.. that is why Valero would probably (???) benefit from Keystone XL.. (??) as it could lower it's costs of Crude...???

Whether that affects the Ethanol side or not.. ???  It would affect the overall health of the company..

I think Valero is okay.. in fact.. hmmm.. might need to do a little more research as I'm looking for a good stock...???

The ethanol side should have been good in Q4 of 11.. tightening substantially in Q1 of 12.. but depending upon how the report goes today.. maybe a little improvement going forward...???

hope this helps..  and I didn't mean to mislead.. as always.. "I could be wrong.."  "JMHO.."  and "Check with your financial advisor to VERIFY anything you read here.."  also.. "not a solicitation to trade as people can AND DO lose $$$ trading..."  blah blah blah...

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