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Northwest IL | There was a little chatter last week that the planting progress and crop conditions improving 2 points were bearish and helped start the push down. The planting progress was at 99 which surprised a few but on June 12th it best be at 99 IMO. Not many look at emergence numbers put as off last week 8 million acres of corn where not even out of the ground yet! As far as the crop conditions report goes it went up 2 points in the g/e category to 69 about the five year average. Last year at this time the number was 77 so we are down 10% from year ago. Anyone know what the five year average yield nationwide is? 154.50
Last year the g/e category was at 77, a 10% increase over five year numbers. So 154.50+15.45=170 the number that traders where throwing around last year and Tara as well. So if this is how the numbers are read, we are at the five year average of 155 about four bushels below where USDA has there 159 now. That would take carryout of 700 stated last week and it would be cut in half using a 155 yield! Seems to me maybe the market went to wrong way last week?
All you bears fire away and please show me your numbers. | |
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Crop Conditions Report
