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| I assume the bull bashing will begin soon...........been quiet here today...............been checking in between turns..........autopilot is addictive...........chased out by some rain this PM...........
report was not bearish.............look at carryout, look at demand, look at world stocks to use................my gosh, six months ago we said anything below 1B carryout was an issue, then it was 800M, then it was 600M, now we are at 700M.............nothing has changed.............demand is still very much intact, it might be wavering, but its still there, it doesn't just go away...........we have basically hit our export goal for soya and wheat, corn is on track...............
soya and wheat look to actually get tighter on stocks to use over time..................guys this thing has not changed.........if anything this was a breather for demand and the world..................which will en turn keep this things going............hence my thoughts of why this is different that 2008..............IMO we have major support in the 6.15ish range and again in the 5.25ish....................IMO we have reached a new plateau that has a lot more $5 and $6's for corn.........
here something else to keep in mind.............wheat production is probably grossly overstated at this point.............and the numbers for next year on corn are assuming a 13.5B crop......................what if its a 12.9B crop (this is my guess 156 on 90M planted)............what if its a 12.5B crop.............
BOTTOM LINE..............THERE WERE A LOT OF ASSUMPTIONS IN THAT REPORT THAT WILL LIKELY NOT PAN OUT.........................AND EVEN WITH THOSE ASSUMPTIONS STOCKS TO USE AND CARRYOUT DID NOT IMPROVE FOR NEXT YEAR.....................SO BEST CASE SCENARIO NOTHING HAS CHANGED...................WORST CASE SCENARIO IS, WELL I AM GUESS WE GO HIGHER......................
Anyone else notice the average price of corn and soya for next year 6 and 13...............like I said in the post below..............this was a hedge to things to come........lower acres and production have to be countered somewhere................the USDA will not let us be short on paper..........
One last thing...........been a lot of talk about how we have more than enough corn and soya to make it out the gate, thus basis is not skyrocketing............we still have several months to go yet, and I am pretty sure there is not going to be a lot of early corn since a lot of it is either burning up, flooded out, or not planted yet................
EDIT: acres lost between crops will likely not be swapped at some point.............flooding and prevent plant along with insurance, inputs (already applied), and other things will keep guys pretty stable on their earlier intent..........some will change, but I am betting not many............so we will see an over net reduction in total farmed acres this year..............which means corn will likley come in closer to 90M instead of 92M and soya could come in at 74-75M..........
Edited by Mizzou Tiger 5/11/2011 19:03
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Anyone still bullish?
