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Glencore IPO... is the commodity bubble about to burst
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canadian farmer
Posted 4/15/2011 15:22 (#1725906)
Subject: Glencore IPO... is the commodity bubble about to burst


Commodity trading behemoth Glencore ($145 billion revenue in 2010) announced an they plan to launch an IPO to raise $9-11B in London and Hong Kong.  Glencore is very active in trading all sorts of commodities (oil, minerals, grain).  Currently the company is entirely owned by management (435 senior partners own the company, which is valued at roughly 60B).  Many say that Glencore needs this IPO to afford buying large mining operators (they already own 35% of Xstrata, and the ultimate goal is 100% ownership).  

Is this huge IPO (already dubbed the IPO of the decade) a sign that commodity markets have reached the top??  Remember Goldman in 1999 before the tech bubble, Blackstone Group in 2007 before the last crash?  The last commodity crash was preceded by huge mergers and acquisitions, like we're seeing today...  prior to 2008, Rio Tinto buying Alcan, Vale buying Falconbridge, etc, etc.  Today we see Glencore eyeing the largest IPO in years, possibly ready to buy Xstrata; BHP wanting to buy Potash Corp, etc.  All major commodities are at record high, commodity-linked currencies are too (AUD, CAD, NOK).  Time for things to go down??  What do you think?

http://business.financialpost.com/2011/03/07/would-glencore-ipo-herald-end-of-commodity-boom/ 



Edited by canadian farmer 4/15/2011 15:37
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