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| so I guess you have two questions in one..........risk is driving things right now, but we still have fundamentals which IMO have not changed........yet.............when you think about Japan, they as a whole are a country with few natural resources and some very smart and unique individuals........and unfortunately radiation doesn't differentiate............
Things are not really good right now, reactor 4 has spent fuel rods basically blowing in the breeze and now a fire...........the other three reactors maybe somewhat stable, and likely have some damage to their fuel rods............so containment will be key to all this............if they can either get these reactors cooled and contained (lets hope so) or just plum buried in earth and concrete then fundamentals will remain intact...............if there is a huge radiation event (god forbid), then we likely have somewhat of a different situation..............so these are the short term risk as I see them..........what would be nice is to wake up tomorrow and it has all been safely taken care of..................probably asking a lot..........
So I think this plays on acres and stocks somewhat different depending on duration and ultimate outcome..........IMO we were not going to see this "rush" of acres................I didn't and don't feel there were that many idle acres left and the projection of new crop prices had not appreciated enough to bring marginal and "lazy" acres into production............I would tend to agree with your assessment that with the increased risk of lower commodity prices, coupled with higher input cost, and marginal acres could likely hinder some of these "lazy" acres..........these acres have not traditionally been managed aggressively so they are slow to come online and some are even marginal in production capacity, therefore a risk scare like this puts them right back were they came from............
As for supplies.............when you look on the production side, IMO we will struggle to get at or slightly above 13B crop, soya might suffer more...........so with those numbers and current demand we are in trouble..........but there is risk that the demand numbers will be revised down due to reduce domestic livestock use from reduced exports and revised down raw grain exports.............IMO it will take a major radiation event to change the numbers enough to make a difference......
Again, I hope things get better from here, and don't even like to think about a worst case scenario, however burying your head in the sand about what's going on in the world is not the right answer either..............again prayers............. | |
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Intervention......without intervention
