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SC Iowa | Now, now, Dave.....I just got back from a 160 mile trip to visit a few corn suppliers and check out the crops.....did not get far above I-80 but not sure the SDS is quite as bad as being touted by some folks.....yes, there is the occasional bad field, but also a lot of fields with only small amounts or even no SDS visible.....can't speak for heart of central Iowa....but was over to Omaha last weekend and western 70 miles of I-80 drive had very little SDS
One thing I saw in some field corn samples-----damage of 2-5% .....damage at end of ear and also on the sides.....last year we saw similar and new crop corn off the combine would be running 2-4% damage vs. normal of 1% and less......just another year to monitor grain quality in storage all the more closely and not assume everything is OK because moistures are at normal levels...
to be honest, I try to work outside the corporate system regarding crop prospects....over the years have developed a network of locals and in a few other areas that are willing to share info.....in Iowa there is little going on except for some early seed corn harvest and some crop insurance checks on fields cut for silage......so most of what I am hearing is out of Illinois.... again, limited info but matches up with what the gents on WILL were saying about less than expected yields......
I think the "rain makes grain" mantra is so branded into the trade's psyche that it's hard to fathom too much rain being detrimental.......we'll look back someday and figure out the FH August weather was not the magic combination for maximum yields, even with plenty of water most places...
The raging bull grain market story is always exciting----but one has to be concerned about how to keep the demand base intact....so while it's always easy to give "the other guy" advice on how to manage his business, just be aware of what substantial price spikes can do to livestock users and perhaps to the ethanol business as well---those are the two big users of US corn......and they do not have the same level of equity they did when the 2006 run-up started, so losses will not as easily be absorbed.....
yes, I am out of my normal character of being neutral to bearish---for the time being---and expecting a run into the September report to develop shortly---and that assumes nothing blows up in the global macro economic system.....the Lehman debacle caught me flat-footed and not realizing what a sea change was developing, so turned out to be another learning lesson....
Just don't forget to sell some 4.50-5.00 deferred cash corn when it's offered....or maybe you just want to do the HTA thing....tough to figure out how basis will act once this crop is put away....expect a demand pull market to develop, and that normally favors narrower spreads and stronger basis....but I've never seen a near 13 byn crop and a demand pull market, so it's uncharted waters for all of us....
beautiful day out there-----almost felt sorry for all the LP salesman who are watching their demand shrink day by day....almost, as they hit the mother lode last year!
Ray J
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4.39 in dec corn
