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bit north of London, UK | And where are these wheat stocks??
1) China - assuming the warehouses contain what the manifest says
2) India - assuming its not rotting in a heap outside under a tarp
These guys stock wheat as strategic security reserve to feed their own vast population... not to trade around the rest of the world, and between them account for half or more of the world surplus.
3) Russia / Kas - hold another chunk of world reserve - now going to be drip fed into the trade to maintain meat production at home / meet export expectations etc... unless Russia shuts down exports of course to keep control of food price inflation at home...
NB Why do western commentators make such daft comments as " Russia will blow the integrity it has been building up as a world class wheat exporter if it does not export x quantity this year." ?? Do these eejits think wheat rolls off a production line? Those 'dependent' on Russian wheat ie Egypt et al should have damn well antied up a month ago when the price was on the floor. If Russia aint got it they cant sell it. Simple! The country is burning up in the hottest weather since records began. Most russians adore Putin, but even they know he cant work miracles / do alchemy. So why do western commentators presume otherwise?
That said lots of wheat will be planted this fall, and if Europe / FSU / Russia get back on track, in a deflationary environment, the price could tank. but that would be a while away. Good job you guys had/are having a decent one on the whole.
Anyway i think the point i am trying to make is that, while there may be plenty of wheat reserve today, much of it is in the hands of people/countries who will not be minded to sell it.
Edited by JWC 7/31/2010 19:59
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DTN says there will be no world wheat shortage.
