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How far out to sell?
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JonSCKs
Posted 7/16/2010 09:36 (#1275592 - in reply to #1275547)
Subject: Good point Bob.


I remember... "sitting" and... "waiting" one morning.. oh about 17 years ago... staring at my wheaties in the bowl...

Wondering HOW? My sure fire early retirement plan... I was considering this "early retirement plan" at the ripe old age 31... could have gone wrong...????

I mean there was NO WAY Soybeans were going to Rally... ABSOLUTELY NO WAY!!! Every market adviser in the Universe said so... there was NO WAY beans could even rally.... In fact I was sure that Congress had somewhere passed a law outlawing it... (kind of like fin Reg they passed yesterday to bribe themselves and "stimulate" a whole new crop of regulators to INSURE that it didn't happen..) The "NO PROFIT IN RAISING BEANS and Stimulus Act of 1986"... or something like that...???  Maybe it was 85..???

So heck... "what could go wrong" shorting the bean market?

So I gradually implemented my ingenious plan to pyramid short Soybean Calls... wow... "the market moved down another 5 cents eh? How many more of them suckers can I short now? 5 eh??? Well sell me 5 more and put in a order to short 5 more again in another 5 cents".... I mean afterall...

"What could go wrong?"

And I was feeling pretty good in a couple of days when USDA came out with a report that agreed with Congress... "Yup you really Can't make ANY money raising beans." And the market tanked again... and my... 40 or 50 calls... "looked pretty good."

In fact, if I recall.. my account increased in value that day by about double my yearly salary... So... retirement in the Bahamas or the Hamptons? OR WILSON LAKE?!??!! Heck... just gonna have to buy a house in all three places... lol... You know I think I actually thought that could happen.... (sucker..)

Anyway to make a long story short... for some unknown reason... which to this day I still can't quite figure out...??

Some say it was greed... or prudence... or the sign up on the wall of the board of trade that said... "Get out before JonSCKs does..." Anyway... against EVERY LAW in the UNIVERSE... Soybeans started to rally...

WHAT?!?

and I started getting margin calls.... "Well there goes the Hamptons..." bunch of snobs... no big deal... then the Bahamas... (never been there but hear it's nice...)

But dang it!! When I lost Lake Wilson!!!  Well... that was the final straw...

"GET ME OUT!!!"

Anyway... you can lose a couple year's salaries... (four as I recall...) in a really short amount of time... or so people tell me... (not that I would know anything about that....) Embarassed

Anywho... that's what I've been told... and I was thinking about that one morning... staring at my wheaties... when my lovely bride told me she thought she was pregnant with our first child... "That's great dear... really good news.. (gulp)"  As I reached for the Maloxx to pour on my wheaties....

It all turned out...  I joined Soybean short sellers ananomous...

"Hi.. my name's Jon.."

"Hi Jon..."

"and once... I shorted soybean calls..."

"Oh..NOOOOOO!!!!!"

"But I can proudly say it's been 17 years, 3 months and 14 days since I've entertained the thought of shorting the bean market..."

Boy howdy... lol... yup... sure cured that. 

Yup... some times "sitting and waiting"... isn't a bad way to go.



Edited by JonSCKs 7/16/2010 09:43
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