West Central Alberta Coldest, wettest edge | farmerbyron started a thread on the markets forum, and I thought it a very worthwhile and pertinent topic, but it hasn't gone anywhere. I thought I would try bringing it over here where there are more posters and see if anyone else thinks this is something we should be worried about and see what other opinions are out there.
Posted 6/15/2010 14:06 (#1238103)
Subject: Emerging economies 'to enjoy food production boom'
Oklahoma http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/10320149.stm
Emerging economies 'to enjoy food production boom'
The emerging economies of Brazil, India, China and Russia will enjoy an agricultural boom over the next decade as production stalls in Western Europe, a report says. Agricultural output in the Bric nations will grow three times as fast as in the major developed countries, the joint United Nations-OECD study said. Livestock and crop prices will stay above long-term averages, it added. And rising incomes and urbanisation in developing states will drive growth.
"Developing countries will provide the main source of growth for world agricultural production, consumption and trade," the report said. "As incomes rise, diets are expected to slowly diversify away from staple foods towards increased meats and processed foods that will favour livestock and dairy products. "For virtually all commodities, the projected growth in imports and exports of developing economies [over the next decade] exceeds that of the OECD area," said the report.
A further increase in oil prices could... reinforce feedstock demand for biofuels. Agricultural Outlook United Nations-OECD report
While overall world net production of commodities is forecast to grow 22%, production among the 30 members of the OECD is estimated at 10%. Production in western Europe alone will stagnate. This OECD growth rate is almost three times slower than the growth rate of Bric countries, which is forecast to expand 27%. The report also identifies Ukraine as likely to see rapid agricultural growth over the next few years. Crop prices, in real terms, will rise between 16% to 40% "above their average for the decade". And average dairy prices are expected to be 16% to 45% higher, with butter prices showing most gains.
Brazil is forecast to see by far the fastest growth in agriculture, with a expansion of more than 40% through to 2019. China and India are expected to see growth of 26% and 21% respectively to 2019. Projections for Russia and Ukraine were 26% and 29%.
Protests
Food prices in 2007-08 soared, sparking protests and riots, as demand for bio-fuels diverted commodities into energy production. The UN-OECD's annual Agricultural Outlook said it did not expect to see a similar food price shock in the coming years. However, the report warned that a sharp rise in energy prices could again impact on the food industry. "A further increase in oil prices could be expected to increase input and production costs, having an impact on crop supplies, prices and trade flows, and reinforce feedstock demand for biofuels."
Looking beyond the next decade, the report forecasts global food production to to expand by 70% by 2050.
There is a lot that doesn't make sense in this article.
PeteMN
Posted 6/15/2010 17:21 (#1238261 - in reply to #1238103)
Subject: RE: Emerging economies 'to enjoy food production boom'
E.Central MN
While I agree that demand for meats may increase, its unclear how increased grain production will fail to crash grain prices. Over the last several years there seems to be a lot of used equipment (such as JD planters) being exported. That and access to better seed genetics should easily increase grain production worldwide. When the playing field is leveled, a lot of those countries will be lower cost producers than we are....
Alberta Farmer
Posted 6/16/2010 00:59 (#1238838 - in reply to #1238103)
Subject: Re: Emerging economies 'to enjoy food production boom'
I look at is as a race between demographics, and improved agricultural methods the world over. If population growth, ( or more likely affluence growth more so than actual numbers) advances faster than the technology to feed them, the farmer wins. If increased yeilds, efficiencies, and opening up more farmland happens faster than the eventual population peak, we lose. It seems that everytime there is a new report on world population, the forecast number of people drops and the number of first world countries in population decline increases. So, I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for the population boom to raise prices.
I've been in Russia and there is huge potential for increases, both in yeilds but also in acres. Still very inefficient methods, and land sitting idle. If not for unstable politics, and socialist governments that scare off investors, much of the developing world could be producing crops like western Europe and America do today. Would the increased affluence of those regions be enough to eat all of the increased production? It seems unlikely considering how much food most developed nations export, including some very densely inhabited european nations. The best hope I see is that with increased standard of living, they all switch from eating grains to eating meat, one source I just found says it takes 5 pounds of grain to make 1 pound of meat. Meanwhile in the developed nations, people are cutting back on their meat consumption, another race against time, which happens faster?
I agree, PeteMN, a lot of regions of the world could produce crops and livestock much cheaper than we can here in Alberta. Hard to compete growing livestock when we have to feed half the year, and grow crops for only a few months of the year, and our population base is too small while the markets are too far away.
Any hope( very inappropriate choice of words, sorry) that soil degradation will save us? I've read anecdotally that the rain forest soil in Brazil etc. has a very short lifespan in cropping conditions.
I think the growing environmental pressures might offer a better chance. IF the public decides that big government should restrict fertilizer use, ban certain chemicals, outlaw GM crops, restrict water usage etc. we could see drastic declines in yields and spikes in prices. Lots of horror stories about water shortages in China, Australia, middle east, and even in North America. If it turns out that irrigation, particularly with ground water isn't sustainable, that will put a big dent in the cultivatable areas of the world. Australia is already buying out the farmers with water rights to save the water for the city folks. Seems like a good "government project" to me, why would the city people need to live in the middle of the desert if not for the farming industry?
The world hasn't seen a big weather event for a long time, just localized crop failures. One big volcanic eruption to cool us off, or widespread drought or flooding would remind consumers where their food comes from since most of them haven't known hunger since the last world war, we've all been too efficient, and mother nature has been very cooperative.
Edited by Alberta Farmer 6/16/2010 01:02 |
Emerging economies 'to enjoy food production boom
