|
Martinsville, Ohio | My Advisor says, and I agree:
"
Corn and wheat prices continue to chop around while beans added to their gains in yesterday’s trade. The reason for the bean market’s independent strength has been fund buying and other speculative buying as traders worry that too many U.S. acres will be shifted away from soybeans into corn.
The South American bean crop is of less worry now after rains in some of the dry areas of Argentina and an increased crop estimate for Brazil out yesterday. Brazilian firm Celeres boosted its soybean production estimate to 57 million tons up 1 million tons from their January estimate due to favorable weather.
Keeping an open mind about prices continues to be necessary in this market. Nobody knows the answers to the many important questions that only time will answer. I believe traders will continue to be worried about demand overwhelming supply until we can see that the crops will be planted on time. I don’t know how high that worry will take prices, and nobody else does either. But, I do know that traders are normally most worried during March, April, May, and June and prices frequently peak during those months.
The only bearish factor I can see is that prices are already high and funds have quit accumulating new longs in corn, selling 1,000 contracts yesterday. Funds continue to build a larger long position in beans, adding an estimated 2,500 contracts yesterday and taking their ownership to a new record 104,000 contracts. Funds were not seen as changing their positions much in wheat yesterday.
Traders will be very worried if we have a wet spring that threatens the average planting dates. Planting progress will be closely watched this spring and any delays will quickly be traded. Traders will get really excited if it gets hot and dry this summer. Traders will also dump their longs if the crop looks big enough.
In this environment our Sell Signals work very well. Keep an open mind as to what prices should be worth. Let the market tell you. Wait for price peaks pointed out by our Sell Signals and sell an increment during the first 5 days of the Sell Signal. Then wait for the Sell Signal to “re-set” (notice how the Sell Signal at the bottom of the corn price chart has broken well below the 75 % level. That “re-sets” the market for the next Sell Signal.) Beans have not re-set, so we will wait for that to happen, then for a Sell Signal to make more sales. Extended Sell Signals (longer than 4 to 6 days) normally means higher prices ahead.
I expect 4 peaks and Sell Signals during March, April, May, and June. Make sales with courage between now and the end of June. Let the market come to you. After July 1st make sales quicker out of fear of price decline."
| |
|
what's up with corn?
