Cole Sibley - 3/11/2024 15:02
I suppose the first question that brings to mind is: What is the inflation adjusted average price of corn since the turn of the century?
Figure 2. Monthly Real Nearby Corn Futures Prices, 1980-2023 (Base = November 2023) * Real prices = nominal prices adjusted by the producer price index. Since 1980, the monthly average corn futures price (nominal price) has averaged $2.89/bu. The highest monthly average price was in April 2022 at $8.14/bu, and the lowest monthly average price was $1.47/bu in January 1987. So, comparing the current price of corn – $4.83/bu – would indicate that although prices are down from the recent high, prices are still nearly $2.00 above the long-term average. Examining real monthly nearby corn futures prices provides a very different comparison. The current price is the same $4.83/bu; however, this is $0.50/bu below the 1980 to 2023 real average price of $5.33/bu. The current price is near the price range from 2014 to 2020, a period that few corn farmers would associate with high prices. For real prices (in November 2023 dollars), the high and low occurred October 1980 at $10.73/bu and September 2005 at $3.00/bu.
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