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custar ohio | Zen is correct on why wheat rallied last year.
I can give a little insight on the current situation, but it won't answer your question.
The recent inverse was generally caused by delivery on the nearby. The Andersons were hard hit by CGB on deliveries to the gulf (via the river and train) to fill the Chinese sales made months ago.
This is good for us in SRW country because it has generally alleviated the massive stock situation that has been staring us in the face since last July.
Remember we raised 15% more SRW last year than expected. Acres are down from last year and maybe lower than even "normal" around here.
I was doom and gloom all winter about even being able to deliver my 2024 new crop wheat. That has all changed in the last two weeks. I feel we are going back to a normal stocks and basis situation here.
All that being said, it really applies more to new crop than old crop. The funds have gone short again up to somewhere of like 110,000 contracts.
It is hard to give you a solid reason to be long May contract wheat. But I know another guy who has some also:(.
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Soft red wheat
