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| If you’re asking for a bell curve you can look at options open interest and it’ll often form a normal distribution. The massive put wall on December corn at 4 would make me think it wouldn’t go much below that and I guess the 6 open interest isn’t quite as high as the 4 but it too looks kinda outlier-ish with being further away from atm. The bell curves, put vs call, aren’t exactly lined up. And we don’t know if they are insurance or the actual position (most likely insurance) and being as it’s a down market I’d assume many of the puts weren’t necessarily insurance and the calls are. And this logic is majorly flawed but based on that I’d say I im more confident in the price landing within the put bell curve and really confident it won’t go below 4. But things can happen throughout the year and positions can change. If you look at the call distribution I’d say they are confident it WONT end up there or at least the premiums won’t be worth as much in December. But if you split the middles on both 4.50-5.50 roughly I’d say that’s a reasonable range we trade in. But commodities aren’t exactly known for their muted moves. It seems to me it’s often a violent rip up followed by a violent rip down
Edited by Deltamudd 2/27/2024 09:44
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Keep it SIMPLE STUPID Chart guys
