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| Election Year vs Non Election Year History:
Friday we took a look at how election years are typically great years for the grain markets.
Our average rallies from January 1st to our highs for the year during election years are as follows:
Corn: +$1.52 3/4
Beans: +$3.89 1/2
So what about "non-election years"?
Well, the difference may surprise you.
Non-election years:
Corn: +$1.07 3/4
Beans: +$2.02 1/2
The difference? For corn that's $0.45 cents. For beans it's a big $1.87
Below is the data for both election & non election years:
A lot of people would be extremely happy with even HALF of our typical rally which would be $0.76 cents in corn and $1.45 in beans.
Some may say "2008 and 2012" don’t count. Which yes is a valid argument because both 2008 and 2012 had major outside events that drove price action.
If you take out 2008 and 2012, our average rally for corn is still $0.88 cents and beans is still $3.25. If we added those to today's prices we would be looking at $5.35 corn and $15.65 beans.
So historically we do rally during election years, but of course this is all hypothetical and food for thought as there are many many factors at play such as South America, US production, and Chinese demand etc.
Here is a few of our past market comments where we talked about the history of the election year rallies, managing risk, potential reversals and more
Todays:
https://txt.so/uNCQep
Fridays:
https://txt.so/kj9nJR
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 Screen Shot 2024-01-23 at 11.32.44 AM (full).jpg (96KB - 250 downloads)
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Screen Shot 2024-01-19 at 10.58.09 AM (full).jpg (48KB - 238 downloads)
Screen Shot 2024-01-19 at 11.12.24 AM (full).jpg (47KB - 237 downloads)
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Election year vs non-election year rally history
