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EC SD | Here is a 5 yr chart of soy with COT at the bottom. Green is the funds, Red is the Commercials (consisting of Producer/Merchant/Processor/User and Swap Dealers), and Blue is small specs. Note that the move of the red and green lines are always in opposite - which tells me the contracts are just moving back and forth between them. Small spec positions are far, far too small to meaningfully participate in this movement.
So interestingly, the funds are short while commercials are long. The funds will likely cover their shorts when the SA crop moves out of the field. At that point the commercials will be hedging physical at large volumes - so the short positions can be covered without moving the market higher.
So what will potentially move the market higher? If the SA crop is sufficiently below expectations, the funds will not just want to cover their shorts, but also build a large long position. See fall of 2020 where the funds drove the market much much higher.
 (soy cot chart (full).jpg)
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 soy cot chart (full).jpg (50KB - 33 downloads)
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The Funds and their short positions?
