| modal - 1/20/2024 15:21
I really enjoy reading your market commentary everyday, but I have one question do you see any hope for the oil sunflower market in 2024 I'm trying to put some numbers together for this coming year thank you.
Plenty of "hope" but we really need demand
I posted a few weeks ago about some sunflowers getting burned in Hughes CO SD a few weeks ago. The operation is still hauling them out of bins and burning them.
Acres will be down very hard in SD next year between the bug issue and the lack of liquidity in the market.
Could easily be down 50% or more
But what we really need is Cargill to get short oil again, making them compete against ADM.
Sunflowers are a very volatile market in 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2022 prices doubled from the harvest low. While they are 1/3 of where they where at the peak in 2022
Until birdseed competes against each other (which doesn't happen often when the industry consolidates like it has) or better yet the crush birdseed and de hull markets all have to compete it will likely be a struggle.
If you plant some in 2024 make sure you can hold them and are not forced to deliver off of the combine.
I predict that if the NSA board doesn't help get crop insurance price issues versus market fixed and big issue fixed the sunflower industry in the USA is on pace to slowly lose acres and become even more of a speciality crop
I do see a couple opportunities in flowers in the route of crushing own seeds and selling own cleaned sunflowers via Amazon
If you want to see where farmers really get the short end of the stick.
Make sure to check out birdseed bags of black oil sunflowers and then see what process it takes to make that finished product.
Clean and bagged
Edited by Mr.Grain 1/20/2024 16:55
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Mr grain
