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| The market is telling end users to buy today only what it needs to consume tomorrow; however, the market doesn’t care if it’s profitable for the buyer or seller.
So if one is a student of the market ….he would buy only his immediate needs….This is important as one considers his “ competition” for buying that corn.
If one is driven by margin, profit, and return on investment…. the price of any one input is irrelevant…..
Having said all that…..the grain markets are dealing with inflation, fertilizer, freight, chemical, charts, exports,usda, Brandon, mandates, strikes, politics, currency, drought maps, invasions, etc. A lot of variables and risk.
Also need to think about how you make decisions. Are you better buying/selling on the way up or on the way down?
Will a spring rally call your bluff if you wait to buy? What is the supply of your local crop? How close today is the corn you need to buy? Will it be further away “tomorrow “?
In general, the profit function tends to become an excuse for procrastination marketing gone bad. That’s when the part about the cost of any one input being irrelevant hits the frontal lobe of the brain like a 5# sledge and you pull the trigger when the U/Z is a 50 cent inverse.
So a lot of noise to consider when contemplating your question. | |
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would you buy physical corn today?
