Cherokee County, Northwest Iowa | "The End of the Lock Down"----What are we to expect then?
The epidemiologists (who I trust when they speak), President Trump, Governor of New York, and the New York Stock exchange all seem to agree that we have "sufficently flattened the curve", "reached the apex", are on the downhill slide of the infection curve, and even though it has been really tough sledding, and we sympathize with the families of over 14,000 people who have died, that things are going to get better from here on out, and someday down the road we will be able to End the Lock Down, and get back to normal, or at least the new normal, whatever that may be.
Granted, above statement holds true mostly for State and City of New York. Several hot spots around the country still on the uphill climb on that infection curve.
Something like 400,000 reported cases in U. S. which is less than .2% of the U. S. population. Goodness knows what the actual % of the general population has been exposed and either recovered or never did show symptoms. These two numbers will equal the "herd immunity" against this disease.
I have read where the State of Iowa is expecting their apex of the curve to come around April 30th. Iowa has 2-3 hot spots located in eastern Iowa, maybe 15% of the counties in the state haven't reported any cases yet, and alot of counties with, what?- less than 5- 10-20-30 cases per county.
Our county presently hasn't had a case reported yet, and are surronded on 3 out of 4 sides by counties with perhaps a total of 12 reported cases or so.
So my pressing question to myself today is: What is the tale end of this curve going to look like? My thought is that until we get some herd immunity up around, you pick the number, 80-85-90 %, either from a vaccination program or a field infection, the idea of jumping in my car and driving across the state to go visit a friend in Waterloo isn't looking real smart. Am I over-thinking this, getting paranoid, or what ? Give me your thoughts. No one wants to see things get opened back up more than me- I am getting tired of looking down a fairly deserted Main Street, thinking about the millions of people in the USA sheltered in place, and missing my weekly supper at local bar and grill teasing the waitresses.
During the infamous 1976 Swine Flu epidemic, we were able to get a vaccine produced within 7 months (and, yes, before anyone rags my ass about the 450 cases of GB Syndrome the vaccine caused, that was unfortunate, and some research out there even disputes that claim) and the U.S. was able to vaccinate 25% of the population within 3 months. Some talking head on tv this am said that the CDC has 300 registered trials ongoing regarding either vaccines or theraputic treatments against corona virus.
I would like to think that we have come a long ways in the last 44 years, and someone is going to come up with a safe, effective game changing vaccine or treatment a lot sooner than the 12-18 months I keep hearing about. I sure hope so.
Edited by Bruce NW Ia 4/8/2020 19:35
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"Tail end of the curve", or .....
