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NEIN | I never calculated any odds, really I dont see how you can do anything but guess. How did you come up with your model for prices? If you are sure of your stance wouldnt a better investment be to simply short the market, after all arent you betting prices will collapse or the state as a whole is going to be a disaster? I would not say there is a 75% chance of either occuring in the next 3 years. The real risk is an individual crop or marketing failure imho. And as far as the records go, I have crop insurance yields but my understanding is you may have to prove(in an audit) with a paper trail of settlement sheets ect. That would be no fun for anyone and the last thing I need is more stress in my life.(andI hate the government) Have you compared Acre to increasing a persons crop insurance level ? | |
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ACRE (again)
