Hmmm.. as usual we have divergent viewpoints..  

First off, we have not Triggered an El Nino.. fresh update out today..  ( http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf )

.. but we probably will.. as the forecasts are calling for one.. How Strong?

A Weak El Nino could actually be dryer.. according to these guys...

( https://opensnow.com/news/post/el-nino-what-it-means-for-snow-during-winter-2018-2019 )

The map below shows the precipitation during the winter (October – April) during 10 previous weak El Nino seasons. Green is above average, white is near average, and orange is below average.

Verdict: A weak El Nino often brings below average precipitation for most of the western United States. More favorable conditions (average precipitation and cooler temperatures) could come to the eastern mountains of Montana and Colorado, the southwest, and the northeast. 


A Moderate El Nino would be more favorable..

The map below shows the precipitation during the winter (October – April) during 7 previous moderate El Nino seasons. Green is above average, white is near average, and orange is below average.

Verdict: A moderate El Nino is better (more snow) than a weak El Nino for most of the United States. Many areas of the west have seen average to above average precipitation during moderate El Ninos while the Northeast is mixed with more precipitation closer to the coast.

There is a lot of hype about El Nino.

Odds of an El Nino for this winter are high (70%), but that's not a guarantee.

If we do get a weak to moderate El Nino, remember that this can actually mean below average or average snow conditions for many areas of the United States.

In the next few months, you'll come across numerous winter forecasts. These 1-6 month forecasts are rarely accurate.

Granted these guys only care about enough snow to ski on.. not raise a crop with.. so.. ??? fwiw.

On my farm.. we did not get as much irrigated 90 bu wheat potential in as we anticipated.. but we got most of our 35 bu dryland wheat ground in.. so.. ??? No big in the grander scheme.. Western Kansas got in.. if favorable conditions continue.. that will be good for them.. for us.. ??? Coffee shop this morning..

90% in.. 80% in.. 75% in.. 95% in.. nobody was done. 67% plus yet to emerge..

"probably be wet through next springs planting season.."

"ugh"

Who knows? Too early to really say.. but nasty out there today..