I can see the potential for prices going wildly either way. Maybe not a high probability of it, but the potential.

On the bear side there are any number of geopolitical events that could temporarily shatter the perception of demand. Demand would not even need to be shattered, just the perception of it for a few months could make the cycle low come about you are describing.

On the bull side with the USD almost weekly in the news of various eastern countries finding ways of bypassing the dollar, it would not take too much FX movement to create a significant amount of dollars trying to find a new home. I can't remember the number, but isn't something like about half the USD in existence residing outside the US banking system in foreign banks and foreign held accounts? What happens when, oh say Russia and China and a hand full of other smaller eastern countries (not to mention some European countries signing on) trade between themselves with their own currencies? How many USD will that displace, them being no longer needed to settle accounts between the said countries? And what will they do with these newly "surplus" USD's????  Just let them set in an account earning nothing? Capital earning zero percent, zip, nada, nothing? Or buying something with these surplus USD's that they might use? Like grains for example to build up a strategic stockpile. The US has not garnered the very best perception of not using things as weapons against other nations. Recent examples Iran (SWIFT system) and Russia. Why would the US not also use food if they thought it suited their purpose? Not that I am predicting any such thing. I'm just making the point that some of those countries might find exchanging  USD reserves earning nothing which they no longer need (or at not as much of it) for something they can use or might even put them in a more secure sovereign position, might look like a worthwhile trade. In other words, I think US foreign policy is again shooting itself in the foot (lots of examples of foreign policy foot shots) by using sanctions all the while their strength as a reserve currency is diminishing. How many surplus USD would it take to move the price of commodities? Again, not saying it is going to happen, but the potential is there if the right set of circumstances came about.

So I can see things going wildly either way. Or muddle along where we are at without much fireworks, at least for the short term. That is why I don't gamble either way. I spread sales out.

As far as Gartman, I'll let him tell it in his own words..........LOL

John