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Buxton ND | Why I'm bearish beans.
1. In the last 5 trading day ending Tuesday 105k contract of OI HAS LEFT. Bearish
2. Since Tuesday another 35k has left POST options expiry. VERY BEARISH
3. For the week funds sold a net 7k Bearish
4. Spec funds short bought 33k of prior shorts back (short covering) Bullish,for a short period of time. Short covering rally's only go so far. WE NEED NET NEW BUYING.
5. And the major point the people (spec funds longs) that we need for net new buying ARE BLANKING LEAVINGGGG,,,as they sold 41k of your beans....................... How UN-earth does this rally have legs when the ones that are sops to be buying,,,supporting the rally ARE LEAVING ??? ANYONE explain that to me please ? ? ?
6. Then I went back and compared this rally to the ones we had in 2012's drought and later winter/spring 2014. By those standers from the numbers point of view,,,,,this is no rally,,,or very short legs.
Now the bull side.
1. MEAL,,,,,logistically its bullish add in the RR troubles coming to a door step near you and I really don't know,will/has it effect/ed meal like it did OATS this winter. Oats has a much longer trip from point A to point Quaker,,,plus it was winter/and COLD............. Yes I know Don loves this !!!!!!!!!! With meal right now,,,if you wanna trade it,better be prepare to margin it $100 per ton,whether your long or short.
UNKNOWNS
1. The SA crop,its been hot and dry/wet and hot/dry and hot/now wet,wetter and cooler. WHO knows its only May 1st down there.
2 though #10 October volumes in beans,,,,,,,,,,,,,5 days of over 400k that's odd,MORE ODD is spec funds DID NOT do Jack the whole month,,, ranging from -16 to +7k net short/net long.
3. Brazil is said to be very lite on new crop sales,,,LACK OF hedge pressure................Its not just us guys...........
4. SO WHERE THE HECK DID ALL THIS VOLUME COME FROM,its not just China either....................................
I still have not figured this volumes deal out (this my take a few years) what I'm think is HFTraders said "Hey lets go play in the cyber-land bean pit for awhile" Say tuned for news from the CFTC (this my take a few years)
Point in case with HFT
.30 wheat limits.
.35 corn
OR $1.00 beans.
For fast high dollar,high value moves,risks/rewards of getting caught.
(this my take a few years)
WHERE would you place "Your Black Box" ????????????????????????
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