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S Illinois | To a point it is. But they are not counting fringe acres as equal to prime I-state acres. Fringe acres are counted in the state tally so they are really being compared to the state average where they are found. That means any extra acres in say Kansas are assigned the Kansas average. Also 3 million of the new acres are coming out of cotton of which many are higher production irrigated ground.
I believe the biggest trouble spot for the USDA models is corn or corn acres. Those acres are very susceptible to poor yields(2010,2011) if we get too much rain in that May-June timeframe where normal soy-corn rotation acres may not suffer as much. With many of these acres being in the prime growing areas(200+), the large reductions(20-50bu/acre) experienced those 2 years can dwarf yield reductions seen in the fringe areas.
My preference would have been to start around the 160 bu area and go from there. | |
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USDA's 2015 first yield estimate
