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| Not much point in responding to everything posted on this subject, valid argument points made.
I would make these comments which are obvious to everyone:
The potential for increased yields is increasing, for obvious reasons.
Weather is the critical limiting factor. Cool temps and moisture availability in June and July, but especially during pollination determine yield more than anything except for frost. You can cherry pick years to prove your point, however.
Future price and input costs determine acreage, i.e. the market.
USDA does have an agenda and is influenced by the big boys, your naive if you don't believe it.
USDA hurts its credibility in years such as 07, 09, and again this year. Wheat froze at Easter in 07 and gov't ignored it till July/Aug.
09 corn was very light weight, bushel volume yes, across the scale no.
this year cold, frost, dry has seriously damaged wheat but is ignored
in 12, small corn crop, the majors simply cut off exports, b/c they all have animals to feed, pretty much tells of their influence
Those who are bearish on this forum tend to post the most, using technicals, I'd bet most of them are grain buyers or invested in livestock.
Crop producers are obviously bulls and use fundamentals.
I look at my post and think I have said nothing of value, but my ego requires I say something. Call me Mr. Obvious.
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USDA's 2015 first yield estimate
