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LongKC

Posted 5/11/2014 00:57 (#3863079 - in reply to #3862979)
Subject: RE: USDA's 2015 first yield estimate

Middle Tennessee

The USDA's statistical methods--whatever they are--may be trying to express just that possibility.

A less sophisticated analysis: The average yield from 1891's numbers is 150. There's a deviation of 16. That gross treatment suggest 30% chance or so of hitting the USDA yield numbers. 170 would be 1.5 deviations, what's that 10% probability or less?

USDA's 2015 first yield estimate - zmracing : 5/10/2014 21:11
- RE: USDA's 2015 first yield estimate - w1891 : 5/10/2014 21:23
  - RE: USDA's 2015 first yield estimate - zmracing : 5/10/2014 22:12
  - RE: USDA's 2015 first yield estimate - jeremeyfrost : 5/10/2014 22:51
    - RE: USDA's 2015 first yield estimate - Buck S : 5/10/2014 23:58
    - RE: USDA's 2015 first yield estimate - LongKC : 5/11/2014 00:57
    - RE: USDA's 2015 first yield estimate - ehoff : 5/11/2014 05:55
    - RE: USDA's 2015 first yield estimate - zmracing : 5/11/2014 09:51
      - RE: USDA's 2015 first yield estimate - Splitflex612C : 5/11/2014 09:58
        
        RE: USDA's 2015 first yield estimate - indeeppigfarmer : 5/11/2014 10:13
    - RE: USDA's 2015 first yield estimate - Bengal Stripes : 5/11/2014 10:28
  - RE: Good post w1891. long term it appears usda est is 7+% high. nt - Markwright : 5/10/2014 23:19
    - RE: Good post w1891. long term it appears usda est is 7+% high. nt - zmracing : 5/11/2014 10:03
      - RE: Good post w1891. long term it appears usda est is 7+% high. nt - 69plowboy : 5/11/2014 17:55
  - RE: USDA's 2015 first yield estimate - $$$ : 5/11/2014 07:44
- RE: USDA's 2015 first yield estimate - Chimel : 5/10/2014 23:26
- Track record 2000-2008 Much better accuracy - w1891 : 5/11/2014 08:47
  - RE: Track record 2000-2008 Much better accuracy - Mlebrun : 5/11/2014 08:57
    - RE: Track record 2000-2008 Much better accuracy - Splitflex612C : 5/11/2014 09:27
      - RE: Track record 2000-2008 Much better accuracy - tmrand : 5/11/2014 10:08
    - RE: Track record 2000-2008 Much better accuracy - Dave NWIL : 5/11/2014 09:55
      - RE: Track record 2000-2008 Much better accuracy - emtbd1979 : 5/11/2014 10:10
        
        RE: Track record 2000-2008 Much better accuracy - Sat : 5/11/2014 10:11
        
        RE: Track record 2000-2008 Much better accuracy - emtbd1979 : 5/11/2014 10:13
        
        RE: Track record 2000-2008 Much better accuracy - Sat : 5/11/2014 10:37
        
        RE: Track record 2000-2008 Much better accuracy - Bengal Stripes : 5/11/2014 10:44
  - RE: Track record 2000-2008 Much better accuracy - Bengal Stripes : 5/11/2014 10:38
    - RE: Track record 2000-2008 Much better accuracy - Farmitall : 5/11/2014 13:25
    - Bingo. - OldMcdonald : 5/11/2014 19:22
      - RE: Bingo. - w1891 : 5/12/2014 08:03
        
        RE: Bingo. - OldMcdonald : 5/12/2014 09:04
        
        RE: Bingo. - w1891 : 5/12/2014 15:14
- RE: USDA's 2015 first yield estimate - frogfarm : 5/11/2014 11:07

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