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Napanee, Ontario | "Looking closer at the quarterly slaughter data, one can get a feel for expansion. During the first quarter steer slaughter declined by 2.7 percent compared with the first quarter of 2013; however, heifer slaughter declined by 7 percent and beef cow slaughter during the first quarter declined by nearly 9 percent. Two thirds of the decline in beef production during the first quarter was the direct result of heifer slaughter declining by 7 percent. This is very strong evidence that expansion is underway in the beef industry."
Yea, i'm not entirely convinced. How much of the lower slaughter stats occur just by virtue of there being less animals to slaughter? If you have less cows year over year, you are going to have lower slaughter numbers....
USDA predicted 5% less cattle on feed in 2014 in their Jan report. That's because there are less claves.... and of course, there will be less slaughtered. I will say that 9% and 7% above, do seem like larger than what could all be attributed to just lower yoy animals numbers.... but i can't say for sure where the line is (ie what is due to holdbacks vs, jsut less animals), and i don't think the author can either - at least he hasn't anyways.
I will wait for next year's cow number data..... there are going to be a lot of eyes watching that number. II really don't see the market tanking anytime before that.... this years calf numbers are already fixed.
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Market corner: Expansion in the beef industry is alive and well
