| John Burns - 2/2/2014 06:38 Does this mean the futures price is right? Of course not. Because the future can not be predicted. It does not know if we are going to have a widespread drought. Nor does it know if the Chinese will find purchasing power and want to improve their diet in a major way. Nor a thousand other things that can possibly come about in the future but are not predictable. Probabilities can be assigned to such future events, but there is no way of knowing for sure if they will play out. Great Post John. But, IMHO, this is I think we show our own human fallibilities. IMHO, price carries all its information forward. And although the futures price for march corn may not be the actual price when march arrives, futures price is always right. It is confined by the laws of physics, like everything we understand today. There are some questions about physics breaking down at some point. I doubt that laws of physics are incorrect, just that there is another part of it that we do not understand yet. I understand your points of the chinese and drought etc. They make total logical sense. The actual events you mention are not predictable. But the reflection of the event in price is. And since everything is controlled by the laws of physics, isn't it possible that the unpredictable drought is actually the laws of physics in play from a previous action, that we can't even conceive of or maybe never even happened during our very limited human existence? Without question, there are way smarter people here than I here. But I watch price dance week after week doing exactly what price predicts it will. Whether or not, I am able to get myself out of the way of price is a whole different subject. My mentor told me once, there are no accidents in price. At the time, I didn't understand what he was saying, and am just scratching the surface of some meager understanding now....but, I have to say...he was right. Take Care |
Bulls vs Bears
