Death comes to us all. Life's but a walking shadow |
The real underlying problem is that no matter what happens short of a complete crop failure of the remaining South American soybean crop, world ending stocks are schedule to increase from 69.6 million metric tons to 82.79 million metric tons a 19% increase almost entirely due to Brazilian production. And that is with the USDA's prediction of a 82 MMT Brazilian crop. The problem only gets worse with the talk of 88 MMT and worse again with the talk of 95 MMT.
It appears that we have had pretty good soybean exports the past few months. What will happen to them if Brazil puts an extra 20 MMT of soybeans on the world market? That's half of our whole export volume which has been running 50% of our production. And we here are talking about planting significantly more soybeans ourselves.
It certainly doesn't look very promising. It might be a good year to take the year off.
WASDE - 525 - 10
World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/
(Million Metric Tons)
World Output Use 2/"
"Total
Supply" Trade "Total
Output Total trade Total Ending
supply use stocks
Oilseeds 2011/12 446.27 531.91 111.36 395.84 66.34
2012/13 (Est.) 474.32 540.66 117.76 396.88 69.6
2013/14 (Proj.) Dec 502.27 571.78 128.32 414.99 82.79
2013/14 (Proj.) Jan 505.85 575.45 128.86 415.52 85.11
Oilmeals 2011/12 268.09 278.54 80.29 262.89 12.51
2012/13 (Est.) 268.61 281.12 77.58 264.26 12.16
2013/14 (Proj.) Dec 281.35 293.66 84.28 275.68 13.41
2013/14 (Proj.) Jan 281.52 293.69 84.47 275.94 13.25
Vegetable Oils 2011/12 157.41 172.06 63.38 152.9 17.51
2012/13 (Est.) 160.73 178.24 67.05 157.74 18.17
2013/14 (Proj.) Dec 168.85 187.15 69.24 164.3 20.45
2013/14 (Proj.) Jan 169.22 187.39 69.73 164.39 20.37
United States Output "Total
Supply" Trade "Total
Use 2/" "Ending
Stocks"
Oilseeds 2011/12 92.35 100.94 37.78 50.35 5.57
2012/13 (Est.) 93.14 100.2 36.94 50.24 5.76
2013/14 (Proj.) Dec 96.44 103.53 40.84 49.99 5.71
2013/14 (Proj.) Jan 97.32 104.54 41.47 50.33 5.75
Oilmeals 2011/12 39.52 42.93 9.16 33.43 0.34
2012/13 (Est.) 38.61 42.34 10.44 31.58 0.31
2013/14 (Proj.) Dec 38.74 42.51 9.86 32.31 0.34
2013/14 (Proj.) Jan 38.94 42.71 10.04 32.33 0.34
Vegetable Oils 2011/12 10.04 15.48 1.15 12.79 1.54
2012/13 (Est.) 10.18 15.51 1.39 12.97 1.16
2013/14 (Proj.) Dec 9.94 15.23 0.96 13.11 1.16
2013/14 (Proj.) Jan 10.15 15.53 1.09 13.27 1.18
filler filler filler filler filler
Foreign 3/ Output "Total
Supply" Trade "Total
Use 2/" "Ending
Stocks"
Oilseeds 2011/12 353.93 430.97 73.58 345.48 60.77
2012/13 (Est.) 381.17 440.46 80.82 346.64 63.84
2013/14 (Proj.) Dec 405.83 468.24 87.47 365 77.08
2013/14 (Proj.) Jan 408.53 470.91 87.39 365.19 79.35
Oilmeals 2011/12 228.57 235.61 71.13 229.46 12.18
2012/13 (Est.) 229.99 238.78 67.14 232.68 11.85
2013/14 (Proj.) Dec 242.62 251.15 74.42 243.37 13.07
2013/14 (Proj.) Jan 242.58 250.98 74.42 243.61 12.92
Vegetable Oils 2011/12 147.37 156.58 62.24 140.1 15.96
2012/13 (Est.) 150.56 162.73 65.66 144.77 17.01
2013/14 (Proj.) Dec 158.91 171.92 68.28 151.19 19.29
2013/14 (Proj.) Jan 159.07 171.85 68.65 151.13 19.19
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an Oct.-Sept. year. 2/ Crush only for oilseeds. 3/ Total Foreign is equal to World minus United States.
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So which is it? Brazil production lowered and we know Argy is in rough shape
