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| The problem is while ag is flush...the avg age is high, so wouldn't you expect a group of individuals who are nearing retirement to be flush? When you begin to break down the D/A ratio by age your expectation that ag is in great financial shape for a medium/long term falls apart. Isn't it common knowledge that a massive # of producers are 60+? That means that a TREMENDOUS turnover is about to happen in agriculture(the next 25 years) and there aren't that many of us young'uns out here to take all that land on if we get into bearish markets and high interest rates.
The agriculture markets are like any market...dynamic. During the housing crisis of 2008 something like 95% of people were making their payments on their mortgages, and that doesn't even count the # of people who owned their homes free and clear. You can't calculate dynamism, there isn't a formula, so its completely unpredictable.
I have no idea how things will shake out over the next 10-30 years, but I'm more cautious than bold after the bull run we've had. That would be like going long at $8.50 corn last summer. I'll either be a genius or my ship will sail without me...I'll let you know in 30 years.
Edit: khall and I had near the same thoughts at the same time, he was just a quicker typer than me.
Edited by 00rooster 9/21/2013 22:21
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- Too much gloom, doom and wild speculation on here - coup : 9/21/2013 20:44
- RE: Too much gloom, doom and wild speculation on here - FTT : 9/21/2013 20:53
- RE: Too much gloom, doom and wild speculation on here - thekcirp : 9/21/2013 21:14
- Re: Too much gloom, doom and wild speculation on here - khall_12_34 : 9/21/2013 22:09
- RE: Heck, let's have another of those Freedom to - Markwright : 9/21/2013 22:10
- Re: Too much gloom, doom and wild speculation on here - 00rooster : 9/21/2013 22:20
- RE: Too much gloom, doom and wild speculation on here - cr39 : 9/21/2013 22:46
- RE: Too much gloom, doom and wild speculation on here - J.L. : 9/21/2013 22:47
- RE: Too much gloom, doom and wild speculation on here - dairyman78 : 9/22/2013 07:37
- RE: Too much gloom, doom and wild speculation on here - mjl : 9/22/2013 07:59
- Re: Too much gloom, doom and wild speculation on here - Scillfarmer : 9/22/2013 09:40
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Too much gloom, doom and wild speculation on here
