SE IA | 1234 - 8/21/2013 08:04
7-State Avg. USDA Final Crop Tour Difference (i calculated)
2011 147.2 158.75 11.55
2010 152.8 167.30 14.50
2009 164.7 169.56 4.86
2008 153.9 161.94 8.04
2007 150.7 158.50 7.80
For what it is worth.
Why did they throw 2012 out? Because it would make their numbers look worse?
Ohio they were at 110 vs 123 final. = 13 bushel too low
SD they were at 74 vs 101 final. = 27 bushel too low
IL they were at 122 vs 105 final. = 17 bushel too high
NE they were at 132 vs 142 final. = 10 bushel too low
IA they were at 137 vs 137 final. =0 got lucky
MN they were at 156 vs 165 final. = 10 bushel too low
IN they were at 113 vs 99 final. = 14 bushel too high
And their pod counts dont mean jack either. Last year PF put Nebraska pod counts at 894 which ended up being a 43 bushel per acre yield. While Indiania had 1033 for a pod count and ends up being 37 bushel per acre. Someone explain that for me please.
Not that the USDA doesn't massage their numbers either, but the PF tour will come in and massage their numbers to be pretty close to what the USDA has. The only thing that the PF tour doesn't consider is that the USDA yield figure equates to average weather from here out. If we have less than desirable weather, then it will move it accordingly.
Edited by jocoshar23 8/21/2013 13:44
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Pro Farmer - this explains historical difference computations
