Death comes to us all. Life's but a walking shadow | You're very right to point that out. It occurred to me as well. It isn't quite fair for Pro Farmer to put out their estimate in August and have USDA second guess them in Jan. After all we have no way to know if the USDA number is any better and the process is a whole lot more opaque.
I'm sure that you can understand that our, the producers feeling. These people get to spend a few pleasant days touring the country, announce their results and then go home. We, the producers take the economic consequences, somehow it doesn't seem quite fair.
As far as NASS goes I wish they would print this disclosure in big bold letters at the top of all their reports, "This yield projection assumes perfect conditions going forward." After all, I, as a farmer make all my marketing and business decisions with the very real risk of some failure or yield loss. After all there is no good way for a farmer to hedge weather risk despite what CME or anyone else says. |
Pro Farmer - this explains historical difference computations
