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Grain and soybean futures are likely to open mostly lower after coming under some pressure from speculative profit taking on long positions in overnight trade amid a lack of fresh fundamental news. Corn futures ranged from steady to 3 1/4 cents lower overnight; with soybean futures 1 1/4 to 5 1/2 cents lower and wheat futures 6 1/2 cents lower to 2 3/4 cents higher.
OPENING CALLS: CORN: 1-2 cents lower on overnight trade, lack of fresh news. SOYBEANS: 2-3 cents lower on profit taking, slowing export demand. WHEAT: Mostly lower on technical selling, Plains precipitation. COTTON: Lower on technical selling, ample U.S. stocks. CASH HOGS: Steady on large supplies, strong packer demand. HOG FUTURES: Mixed on firm cash tone, premium to cash prices. CASH CATTLE: Quiet, uncertain on larger showlists, winter weather. CATTLE FUTURES: Lower on weak Tues. close, warmer weather forecasts.
Soybean futures appeared to run out of fresh buyers in the overnight session, which led to a round of profit taking. The profit taking is likely to continue this morning, although futures were well off their overnight lows when overnight trade stopped at 6:00 a.m. CST. Indications Chinese soybean buying continues to slow after heavy November purchases may weigh on futures. Concerns about dry conditions in parts of Argentina and southern Brazil may limit price weakness. Hopes for Congress to pass a much larger biofuels mandate will remain supportive. Soybean futures may also find some support from news that investment house Goldman Sachs has raised its 12-mo. price outlook for soybeans to $14.50 per bu. from $9.00 per bu. on ideas that U.S. soybean acreage will fall again in 2008-09. Jan. soybeans have nearby chart support at $11.22 1/4.
Corn futures' failure to follow-through on their Tuesday day session strength in overnight trade may weigh on the market early this morning. A lack of fresh export activity should limit buying interest along with indications the market is becoming technically overbought. Indications that Chinese corn demand is slowing due to bird flu worries may also weigh on prices. Weakness should be limited, though, by prospects for continued growth in demand from the ethanol industry. Ongoing concerns about Argentina's corn crop may also remain supportive. Some added support may come from news that Goldman Sachs has revised its 12-mo. price outlook for corn up to $5.30 per bu. from $4.00. Mar. corn futures have nearby chart support at $4.15 3/4.
Wheat futures should come under early pressure from Tuesday's significant downturn and a lack of fresh bullish news. The recent precipitation in the Plains HRW may continue to weigh on prices. Up to 3/4 of an inch of precip fell on Tuesday and Texas and Okla. are continuing to see some light precipitation this morning. But more moisture is needed, especially in the western half of the production belt. The results of Egypt's latest optional wheat tender will help set the early price tone. The market may find not find too much support from news that Goldman Sachs has raised its 12-mo. outlook for wheat prices to $7.50 per bu. from $6.00, since futures prices are already well above that level.
Live cattle futures may feel pressure from forecasts for Plains weather problems to be short-lived, with warmer-than-normal weather expected to move in over the weekend. A weak Tues. close may spur some technical selling. Lean hog futures should be supported by Tuesday's solid 422,000 head kill, which suggests weather did not back up hog marketings too much. Futures may continue to feel pressure from their premium to cash prices.
NOTE: Along with the potential for profit, there is always a risk of losing money when trading futures and options contracts.
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