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SE SD | A Cattle Market Warning From Ed Sullivan
Tue Feb 28, 2012 06:28 PM CST
Breakable plates perched high above the hard ground on thin sticks that bend like willows is not a bad way to describe the tenuous nature of current cattle and beef prices. (Photo by Don Fulano, CC BY-SA 2.0)
Spinning plates is nearly a lost art form.
I suppose you can still catch the odd circus act along the Vegas Strip. And somewhere an assisted living facility called "The Show Must Go On" may even stage talent nights featuring old vaudevillians with walkers who shuffle and groan between crashing pieces of dishware.
But for those of us old enough to remember the golden age of Ed Sullivan, the remarkable showmanship of the intrepid plate spinner seems to be vanishing along with the likes of corn shuckers and harness makers.
With all due respect to fans of Elvis Presley, The Beatles, The Muppets, Rodney Dangerfield, Pearl Bailey, The Doors, Myron Cohen, Stiller and Meara, Louis Armstrong, Alan King, The Rolling Stones, Topo Gigio and Senor Wences, no one made Ed call it "a really big shoe" like plate spinners waiting in the wings.
When the band started playing "The Sabre Dance," my young heart would immediately start to race like Mitt's fleet of Cadillacs. Believe me, you know the tune, that frantic call-and-response between an overcaffeinated xylophone and mocking trombones.
As I recall, a formally dressed man would start to toss and spin plates on the top of tall sticks, carefully adding one after one until he was eventually juggling more porcelain than would fit in my grandma's massive china hutch.
By the time the last wobbling saucer was snatched for the closing bow, I was an emotional wreck, convinced that the amazing display bore witness to something between suspended gravity and the cheating of death itself.
Truthfully, these old CBS reruns have occasionally surfaced over the years in the form of nightmares only Freud could appreciate. But recent plate-spinning memories have been prompted less by my troubled subconscience than a precariously hovering cattle market.
Just think about. Breakable plates perched high above the hard ground on thin sticks that bend like willows is not a bad way to describe the tenuous nature of current cattle and beef prices, ambivalent measurements that strike me as long on dazzle but short on sustainability.
Let's start with the dazzle, revolving discs of history-making brilliance and dimension. In plain talk, I've never before seen a market period like the first two months of 2012 where prices have notched so many record highs on so many different levels.
The only trouble in counting the new records is running out of fingers. Market history has been rewritten with never-before-seen high prices in the following categories: cash feedlot cattle, cash yearling, cash calves, cash slaughter cows, bred cows, bred heifers, live cattle futures, feeder cattle futures, choice cut-outs, select cut-outs, choice retail beef and menu entrees.
Surely this represents a galaxy of spinning plates big enough to impress Simon Cowell, Howard Stern and Donald Trump all rolled into one surly talent scout.
Yet while Mr. Sullivan could always save his favorite novelty act by closing the curtain, cutting to commercial or turning on the applause sign at just the right time, the marketplace is seldom so easily satisfied and obliging.
Record prices and sustainable ones are two different things. Because the spinning plate cannot generate its own momentum, it must compete with other plates for the necessary attention of the increasingly harried spinner.
As I see it, many of the perfectly spinning plates in the cattle market may soon run shy of centrifugal force and fall crashing to the floor. Why? Because exhausted buyers and sellers will determine that the effort to keep all the plates spinning is simply counterproductive.
The case of record-high retail beef prices serves as a good illustration in this regard. Even though grocers have successfully marked beef cuts to all-time highs for the past five consecutive months, is it reasonable to assume that they can keep asking consumers to pay whatever it takes to cover the rising cost of steaks and hamburgers?
Of course not.
At some point, economically stressed consumers may recognize that, as delectable as it may be, beef is neither air nor water in terms of a necessity of life. Cheaper alternatives can always be found (i.e., easier plates to spin). The retail beef plate simply does not have to twirl.
And if the retail plate cracks into multiple pieces, market spinners could take a hard look at the efforts required to keep the wholesale and live platters spinning.
You can see how the once-spectacular market performance could quickly implode, a supply-driven headliner turned into a sad sideshow with maybe just one chipped dish clinging to the top of a short stick.
Yes, the final spotlight would no doubt focus on the still-spinning feed cattle plate. After all, it was the reality and perception of tightening feeder supplies that initially set the stage for the current market's rave reviews.
But I think it would be a mistake even for ranchers to be oblivious to falling plates. While record feeder prices may be the last plate to stop spinning, inadequate demand and buying interest further up the production line can always ruin a good act. | |
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circus act?
