Looking forward, could that region be the impetus again?
Is it safe to assume that grain and fertilizer were exempted from the sanctions at the beginning because grain prices were already high, and the prevailing wisdom was that the world was short of food.
Now the media is full of stories of a glut of grains, prices of grains and fertilizer are down a lot from 2022.  And new sanctions are being discussed.
Is it possible that grains or fertilizers may not be exempted next time?
Is it possible that Russia has been selling as much as possible regardless of price before this eventuality?

There also remains the very real possibility that a nuclear power plant in the region eventually gets hit.  There have been enough unsuccessful attempts already.  And the pundits are speculating that Ukraine may enforce a scorched earth policy as they retreat.  Basically, if I can't have it, then neither can anyone else.  What better way than contaminate the best soil in the world than with nuclear fall out from a missile into a nucleal power plant.  Looks like there are at least 6 plants in the region, including the Zaphorisia plant that has been in the news.
Look up what happened to wheat markets when Chernobyl happened.