|
| Here is an article from this morning from the group we follow for South America. The crops look great but now we are concerned about this developing situation down here. It is not a big enough concern yet, but the weather turned very hot.
The point they make is that you need a bigger weather problem to get more than a short covering rally. We agree, cash values are still very weak Brasil and Argie. Do you see it different in the Midwest?
Easy Newz updated its S Am soybean production to 222.33 on January 15. Since then, the weather outlook has notably deteriorated in Sao Paulo state, Rio Grande do Sul, and Argentina. Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul remain a concern.
Soybean production estimates are down nearly 5 million tonnes: -1 for SP, -1 for Parana, -1 for Rio Grande do Sul, and -1.5 for Argentina. RGDS started in great shape but has dried out. The forecasts show a drying trend from MGDS south through Argentina’s Pampas. Excessive heat will begin in southern Argentina and shift north.
Traders are likely underestimating the production risks for Argentina due to Brazil’s situation stabilizing and too many social media accounts and crop forecasters crying wolf. Argentina’s critical soybean period is the next four weeks. Tweets and crop forecasters' guessing will not fool hedge funds. This explains the massive increase in short speculative bets since early November. | |
|
The Funds and their short positions?
