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Ethanol update.
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JonSCKs
Posted 7/5/2020 09:23 (#8354899)
Subject: Ethanol update.


I haven't had time to update much but here goes..

The numbers are improving.. and a little surprising when coupled with the stocks report.  The Grind hit 900 k bbls.. this week.. not what we were doing but better.. since Sept 1st we have ground 467 myn bushels less on paper.. we pulled Sorghum out of the mix there mid winter.. so .. more corn.. but less total.  The stocks report was "only" off about 2?? myn bushels vs expectations.. and actually "only" 21 myn bushels more than what we had June 1st 2019.. So given the precarious situation with everything.. we must have fed more than expected.. which stands to reason.. or last year's crop was overstated.. or both.

Ethanol exports came in higher than I estimated.. and ethanol stocks are falling quickly even though production is outpacing domestically reported blending.. Sanitizer and possibly exports.. are accounting for the rest of the disappearance.

There are some nuggets of hope but that depends on the economy holding together and usage continuing.

One growing factor is the amount of Crude Oil production shut in.. and the dearth of drilling which will create a fuels gap in the future.. it will probably take higher prices in the Crude Oil market to restart that sector of the economy.. which will provide an uplift to ethanol prices at some point.

Lots of unknowns.. EPA.. Waivers.. Gap Waivers.. RVO's.. Rin's  Crop size.. and production economics.. make this a hurricane of possibilities.. virtually impossible to outguess.  but.. holding together for now.

If we change administrations this fall.. what does that do?  Better.. or worse?  Not going to be friendly to the petro industry.

          Computed          
 Weekly Production      number to balanceComputedActualTotal Weekly bu  Weekly US  
Week Blenders InputImportsStocksCapacityResidual and exportsExportsExportsEthanolGrindVs Last yearChangeSupplied Finished 
 Ethanol k bbls/dayk bbls /dayk bbls /day k bbls k bbls k bbls /dayk bblsMonthlyEIAdemand   Motor Gasoline 
        37,936       2.85conversion  Ethanol as % of
                      
8/23/20191038 955 9 22,98261% 147.0 1029  1102.0107,078vs 18/19change99009.65% 
8/30/20191013 952 26 23,80163% -30.0 -21038172921922.0104,499  947110.05% 
9/6/20191023 930 0 22,49959% 279.0 1953  1209.0105,531105,22130998079.48% 
9/13/20191003 905 11 23,23861% 3.4 24  908.4103,467108,419-4,952893910.12% 
9/20/2019943 935 113 22,50059% 226.4 1585  1161.497,278106,872-9,594934610.00% 
9/27/2019958 923 0 23,21961% -67.7 -47430882540855.398,825104,705-5,880913710.10% 
10/4/2019963 917 0 21,22456% 331.0 2317  1248.099,341107,284-7,94394609.69% 
10/11/2019971 942 0 22,06158% -90.6 -634  851.4100,166104,293-4,126935410.07% 
10/18/2019996 928 28 21,36456% 195.6 1369  1123.6102,745105,634-2,88895909.68% 
10/25/20191004 936 53 21,09956% 158.9 1112416426891094.9103,571109,244-5,67497849.57% 
11/1/20191014 917 0 21,87458% -13.7 -96  903.3104,602110,173-5,571914510.03% 
11/8/20191030 940 0 20,98555% 217.0 1519  1157.0106,253110,069-3,817932110.08% 
11/15/20191033 929 4 20,51454% 175.3 1227  1104.3106,562107,491-928919210.11% 
11/22/20191059 930 36 20,27753% 198.9 1392  1128.9109,244108,1091,135920410.10% 
11/29/20191060 902 11 20,63954% 117.3 821486325581019.3109,347110,276-92890329.99% 
12/6/20191072 858 66 21,81558% 112.0 784  970.0110,585107,9032,68288829.66% 
12/13/20191064 912 0 21,79857% 154.4 1081  1066.4109,760107,9031,85794119.69% 
12/20/20191083 938 0 21,46957% 192.0 1344  1130.0111,720107,4914,229930310.08% 
12/27/20191066 884 0 21,03455% 244.1 1709491834901128.1109,966104,2935,67489619.86% 
1/3/20201062 801 0 22,46259% 57.0 399  858.0109,554103,1586,39681339.85% 
1/10/20201095 854 25 23,00661% 188.3 1318  1042.3112,958108,4194,53985589.98% 
1/17/20201049 864 0 24,03163% 38.6 270  902.6108,213106,3561,85786629.97% 
1/24/20201029 873 0 24,24464% 125.6 879  998.6106,149104,3961,75487939.93% 
1/31/20201081 888 0 23,47462% 303.0 2121498736021191.0111,51499,75411,76089339.94% 
2/7/20201033 873 0 24,35864% 33.7 236  906.7106,562106,149413872210.01% 
2/14/20201040 896 0 24,78165% 83.6 585  979.6107,284102,7454,539891810.05% 
2/21/20201054 902 35 24,71865% 196.0 1372  1098.0108,728106,0462,68290359.98% 
2/28/20201079 897 0 24,96466% 146.9 1028322146241043.9111,307105,6345,67491869.76% 
3/6/20201044 919 9 24,33464% 224.0 1568  1143.0107,697103,6744,02394499.73% 
3/13/20201035 915 0 24,59865% 82.3 576  997.3106,768103,5713,19896969.44% 
3/20/20201005 874 0 24,14064% 196.4 1375  1070.4103,674100,5793,09588379.89% 
3/27/2020840 601 0 25,71768% 13.7 9636153337614.786,653103,055-16,40266599.03% 
4/3/2020672 502 0 27,09171% -26.3 -184  475.769,322103,364-34,04250659.91% 
4/10/2020570 506 0 27,46972% 10.0 70  516.058,800104,808-46,00850819.96% 
4/17/2020563 523 0 27,68973% 8.6 60  531.658,078108,109-50,03253119.85% 
4/24/2020537 583 0 26,33769% 147.1 10309762457730.155,396105,634-50,23858609.95% 
5/1/2020598 595 0 25,61268% 106.6 746  701.661,688106,872-45,18366648.93% 
5/8/2020617 666 0 24,19064% 154.1 1079  820.163,648108,419-44,77173989.00% 
5/15/2020663 680 0 23,62662% 63.6 445  743.668,394110,482-42,088679010.01% 
5/22/2020724 712 0 23,17661% 76.3 534  788.374,686109,038-34,35272539.82% 
5/29/2020765 720 0 22,47659% 145.0 10153819 865.078,916107,697-28,78175499.54% 
6/5/2020837 765 0 21,80257% 168.3 1178  933.386,343113,061-26,71879009.68% 
6/12/2020841 789 0 21,34656% 117.1 820  906.186,756111,514-24,758787010.03% 
6/19/2020893 831 0 21,03455% 106.6 746  937.692,120110,585-18,46586089.65% 
6/26/2020900 829 0 20,16453% 195.3 13674111 1024.392,842111,514-18,67285619.68% 
                      
19/20 MY 42 wks929.5 825.2 9.1 23126.761% 125.5 878.23776.23162.1950.795,884105,404-467,3058403.79.81% 
18/19 MY 42 wks1034.8 914.4 3.9 23194.961% 123.7 866.23724.63137.91038.2106,744109,030 9230.79.91% 
                      15 byn target: 978.0            -10,860.4-3,626    
19/20 vs 18/19-10.2% -9.8% 1 -0.3%  1.4% 1.4%1.4%0.8%-8.4%-10.2%-47,143bu lower-9.0%-1.0% 

Cheers.

Weekly production number http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=w_epooxe_yop_nus_mbbld&f=w

Weekly Blenders Input.. http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=w_epooxe_yir_nus_mbbld&f=w

Weekly Imports of Ethanol http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPOOXE_IM0_NUS-Z00_MBBLD&f=W

Weekly Stocks number http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPOOXE_SAE_NUS_MBBL&f=W

Weekly US Product Supplied of Finished Motor Gasoline http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WGFUPUS2&f=W

Monthly US Exports of Ethanol http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=M_EPOOXE_EEX_NUS-Z00_MBBL&f=M

 

Ethanol Supply and Disposition https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/PET_SUM_SND_A_EPOOXE_MBBL_M_CUR.htm

US Grains Council update  https://grains.org/ethanol_report/ethanol-market-and-pricing-data-june-2-2020/









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