| I haven't had time to update much but here goes..
The numbers are improving.. and a little surprising when coupled with the stocks report. The Grind hit 900 k bbls.. this week.. not what we were doing but better.. since Sept 1st we have ground 467 myn bushels less on paper.. we pulled Sorghum out of the mix there mid winter.. so .. more corn.. but less total. The stocks report was "only" off about 2?? myn bushels vs expectations.. and actually "only" 21 myn bushels more than what we had June 1st 2019.. So given the precarious situation with everything.. we must have fed more than expected.. which stands to reason.. or last year's crop was overstated.. or both.
Ethanol exports came in higher than I estimated.. and ethanol stocks are falling quickly even though production is outpacing domestically reported blending.. Sanitizer and possibly exports.. are accounting for the rest of the disappearance.
There are some nuggets of hope but that depends on the economy holding together and usage continuing.
One growing factor is the amount of Crude Oil production shut in.. and the dearth of drilling which will create a fuels gap in the future.. it will probably take higher prices in the Crude Oil market to restart that sector of the economy.. which will provide an uplift to ethanol prices at some point.
Lots of unknowns.. EPA.. Waivers.. Gap Waivers.. RVO's.. Rin's Crop size.. and production economics.. make this a hurricane of possibilities.. virtually impossible to outguess. but.. holding together for now.
If we change administrations this fall.. what does that do? Better.. or worse? Not going to be friendly to the petro industry.
| | | | | | | | | | Computed | | | | | | | | | | | | Weekly Production | | | | | | | number to balance | Computed | Actual | Total | Weekly bu | | Weekly US | | Week | | Blenders Input | Imports | Stocks | Capacity | Residual and exports | Exports | Exports | Ethanol | Grind | Vs Last year | Change | Supplied Finished | | | Ethanol k bbls/day | k bbls /day | k bbls /day | k bbls | k bbls | | k bbls /day | k bbls | Monthly | EIA | demand | | | | Motor Gasoline | | | | | | | | | | 37,936 | | | | | | | | 2.85 | conversion | | | Ethanol as % of | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 8/23/2019 | 1038 | | 955 | | 9 | | 22,982 | 61% | | 147.0 | | 1029 | | | 1102.0 | 107,078 | vs 18/19 | change | 9900 | 9.65% | | 8/30/2019 | 1013 | | 952 | | 26 | | 23,801 | 63% | | -30.0 | | -210 | 3817 | 2921 | 922.0 | 104,499 | | | 9471 | 10.05% | | 9/6/2019 | 1023 | | 930 | | 0 | | 22,499 | 59% | | 279.0 | | 1953 | | | 1209.0 | 105,531 | 105,221 | 309 | 9807 | 9.48% | | 9/13/2019 | 1003 | | 905 | | 11 | | 23,238 | 61% | | 3.4 | | 24 | | | 908.4 | 103,467 | 108,419 | -4,952 | 8939 | 10.12% | | 9/20/2019 | 943 | | 935 | | 113 | | 22,500 | 59% | | 226.4 | | 1585 | | | 1161.4 | 97,278 | 106,872 | -9,594 | 9346 | 10.00% | | 9/27/2019 | 958 | | 923 | | 0 | | 23,219 | 61% | | -67.7 | | -474 | 3088 | 2540 | 855.3 | 98,825 | 104,705 | -5,880 | 9137 | 10.10% | | 10/4/2019 | 963 | | 917 | | 0 | | 21,224 | 56% | | 331.0 | | 2317 | | | 1248.0 | 99,341 | 107,284 | -7,943 | 9460 | 9.69% | | 10/11/2019 | 971 | | 942 | | 0 | | 22,061 | 58% | | -90.6 | | -634 | | | 851.4 | 100,166 | 104,293 | -4,126 | 9354 | 10.07% | | 10/18/2019 | 996 | | 928 | | 28 | | 21,364 | 56% | | 195.6 | | 1369 | | | 1123.6 | 102,745 | 105,634 | -2,888 | 9590 | 9.68% | | 10/25/2019 | 1004 | | 936 | | 53 | | 21,099 | 56% | | 158.9 | | 1112 | 4164 | 2689 | 1094.9 | 103,571 | 109,244 | -5,674 | 9784 | 9.57% | | 11/1/2019 | 1014 | | 917 | | 0 | | 21,874 | 58% | | -13.7 | | -96 | | | 903.3 | 104,602 | 110,173 | -5,571 | 9145 | 10.03% | | 11/8/2019 | 1030 | | 940 | | 0 | | 20,985 | 55% | | 217.0 | | 1519 | | | 1157.0 | 106,253 | 110,069 | -3,817 | 9321 | 10.08% | | 11/15/2019 | 1033 | | 929 | | 4 | | 20,514 | 54% | | 175.3 | | 1227 | | | 1104.3 | 106,562 | 107,491 | -928 | 9192 | 10.11% | | 11/22/2019 | 1059 | | 930 | | 36 | | 20,277 | 53% | | 198.9 | | 1392 | | | 1128.9 | 109,244 | 108,109 | 1,135 | 9204 | 10.10% | | 11/29/2019 | 1060 | | 902 | | 11 | | 20,639 | 54% | | 117.3 | | 821 | 4863 | 2558 | 1019.3 | 109,347 | 110,276 | -928 | 9032 | 9.99% | | 12/6/2019 | 1072 | | 858 | | 66 | | 21,815 | 58% | | 112.0 | | 784 | | | 970.0 | 110,585 | 107,903 | 2,682 | 8882 | 9.66% | | 12/13/2019 | 1064 | | 912 | | 0 | | 21,798 | 57% | | 154.4 | | 1081 | | | 1066.4 | 109,760 | 107,903 | 1,857 | 9411 | 9.69% | | 12/20/2019 | 1083 | | 938 | | 0 | | 21,469 | 57% | | 192.0 | | 1344 | | | 1130.0 | 111,720 | 107,491 | 4,229 | 9303 | 10.08% | | 12/27/2019 | 1066 | | 884 | | 0 | | 21,034 | 55% | | 244.1 | | 1709 | 4918 | 3490 | 1128.1 | 109,966 | 104,293 | 5,674 | 8961 | 9.86% | | 1/3/2020 | 1062 | | 801 | | 0 | | 22,462 | 59% | | 57.0 | | 399 | | | 858.0 | 109,554 | 103,158 | 6,396 | 8133 | 9.85% | | 1/10/2020 | 1095 | | 854 | | 25 | | 23,006 | 61% | | 188.3 | | 1318 | | | 1042.3 | 112,958 | 108,419 | 4,539 | 8558 | 9.98% | | 1/17/2020 | 1049 | | 864 | | 0 | | 24,031 | 63% | | 38.6 | | 270 | | | 902.6 | 108,213 | 106,356 | 1,857 | 8662 | 9.97% | | 1/24/2020 | 1029 | | 873 | | 0 | | 24,244 | 64% | | 125.6 | | 879 | | | 998.6 | 106,149 | 104,396 | 1,754 | 8793 | 9.93% | | 1/31/2020 | 1081 | | 888 | | 0 | | 23,474 | 62% | | 303.0 | | 2121 | 4987 | 3602 | 1191.0 | 111,514 | 99,754 | 11,760 | 8933 | 9.94% | | 2/7/2020 | 1033 | | 873 | | 0 | | 24,358 | 64% | | 33.7 | | 236 | | | 906.7 | 106,562 | 106,149 | 413 | 8722 | 10.01% | | 2/14/2020 | 1040 | | 896 | | 0 | | 24,781 | 65% | | 83.6 | | 585 | | | 979.6 | 107,284 | 102,745 | 4,539 | 8918 | 10.05% | | 2/21/2020 | 1054 | | 902 | | 35 | | 24,718 | 65% | | 196.0 | | 1372 | | | 1098.0 | 108,728 | 106,046 | 2,682 | 9035 | 9.98% | | 2/28/2020 | 1079 | | 897 | | 0 | | 24,964 | 66% | | 146.9 | | 1028 | 3221 | 4624 | 1043.9 | 111,307 | 105,634 | 5,674 | 9186 | 9.76% | | 3/6/2020 | 1044 | | 919 | | 9 | | 24,334 | 64% | | 224.0 | | 1568 | | | 1143.0 | 107,697 | 103,674 | 4,023 | 9449 | 9.73% | | 3/13/2020 | 1035 | | 915 | | 0 | | 24,598 | 65% | | 82.3 | | 576 | | | 997.3 | 106,768 | 103,571 | 3,198 | 9696 | 9.44% | | 3/20/2020 | 1005 | | 874 | | 0 | | 24,140 | 64% | | 196.4 | | 1375 | | | 1070.4 | 103,674 | 100,579 | 3,095 | 8837 | 9.89% | | 3/27/2020 | 840 | | 601 | | 0 | | 25,717 | 68% | | 13.7 | | 96 | 3615 | 3337 | 614.7 | 86,653 | 103,055 | -16,402 | 6659 | 9.03% | | 4/3/2020 | 672 | | 502 | | 0 | | 27,091 | 71% | | -26.3 | | -184 | | | 475.7 | 69,322 | 103,364 | -34,042 | 5065 | 9.91% | | 4/10/2020 | 570 | | 506 | | 0 | | 27,469 | 72% | | 10.0 | | 70 | | | 516.0 | 58,800 | 104,808 | -46,008 | 5081 | 9.96% | | 4/17/2020 | 563 | | 523 | | 0 | | 27,689 | 73% | | 8.6 | | 60 | | | 531.6 | 58,078 | 108,109 | -50,032 | 5311 | 9.85% | | 4/24/2020 | 537 | | 583 | | 0 | | 26,337 | 69% | | 147.1 | | 1030 | 976 | 2457 | 730.1 | 55,396 | 105,634 | -50,238 | 5860 | 9.95% | | 5/1/2020 | 598 | | 595 | | 0 | | 25,612 | 68% | | 106.6 | | 746 | | | 701.6 | 61,688 | 106,872 | -45,183 | 6664 | 8.93% | | 5/8/2020 | 617 | | 666 | | 0 | | 24,190 | 64% | | 154.1 | | 1079 | | | 820.1 | 63,648 | 108,419 | -44,771 | 7398 | 9.00% | | 5/15/2020 | 663 | | 680 | | 0 | | 23,626 | 62% | | 63.6 | | 445 | | | 743.6 | 68,394 | 110,482 | -42,088 | 6790 | 10.01% | | 5/22/2020 | 724 | | 712 | | 0 | | 23,176 | 61% | | 76.3 | | 534 | | | 788.3 | 74,686 | 109,038 | -34,352 | 7253 | 9.82% | | 5/29/2020 | 765 | | 720 | | 0 | | 22,476 | 59% | | 145.0 | | 1015 | 3819 | | 865.0 | 78,916 | 107,697 | -28,781 | 7549 | 9.54% | | 6/5/2020 | 837 | | 765 | | 0 | | 21,802 | 57% | | 168.3 | | 1178 | | | 933.3 | 86,343 | 113,061 | -26,718 | 7900 | 9.68% | | 6/12/2020 | 841 | | 789 | | 0 | | 21,346 | 56% | | 117.1 | | 820 | | | 906.1 | 86,756 | 111,514 | -24,758 | 7870 | 10.03% | | 6/19/2020 | 893 | | 831 | | 0 | | 21,034 | 55% | | 106.6 | | 746 | | | 937.6 | 92,120 | 110,585 | -18,465 | 8608 | 9.65% | | 6/26/2020 | 900 | | 829 | | 0 | | 20,164 | 53% | | 195.3 | | 1367 | 4111 | | 1024.3 | 92,842 | 111,514 | -18,672 | 8561 | 9.68% | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 19/20 MY 42 wks | 929.5 | | 825.2 | | 9.1 | | 23126.7 | 61% | | 125.5 | | 878.2 | 3776.2 | 3162.1 | 950.7 | 95,884 | 105,404 | -467,305 | 8403.7 | 9.81% | | 18/19 MY 42 wks | 1034.8 | | 914.4 | | 3.9 | | 23194.9 | 61% | | 123.7 | | 866.2 | 3724.6 | 3137.9 | 1038.2 | 106,744 | 109,030 | | 9230.7 | 9.91% | | 15 byn target: | | 978.0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | -10,860.4 | -3,626 | | | | | 19/20 vs 18/19 | -10.2% | | -9.8% | | 1 | | -0.3% | | | 1.4% | | 1.4% | 1.4% | 0.8% | -8.4% | -10.2% | -47,143 | bu lower | -9.0% | -1.0% | | Cheers. Weekly production number http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=w_epooxe_yop_nus_mbbld&f=w Weekly Blenders Input.. http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=w_epooxe_yir_nus_mbbld&f=w Weekly Imports of Ethanol http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPOOXE_IM0_NUS-Z00_MBBLD&f=W Weekly Stocks number http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPOOXE_SAE_NUS_MBBL&f=W Weekly US Product Supplied of Finished Motor Gasoline http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WGFUPUS2&f=W Monthly US Exports of Ethanol http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=M_EPOOXE_EEX_NUS-Z00_MBBL&f=M Ethanol Supply and Disposition https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/PET_SUM_SND_A_EPOOXE_MBBL_M_CUR.htm US Grains Council update https://grains.org/ethanol_report/ethanol-market-and-pricing-data-june-2-2020/
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