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Fontanelle, IA | Richard Brock was on Agritalk late last week. One thing that he said really struck me / struck a nerve regarding "never store a short crop?"
"Never store a short crop" was what everyone preached in 2012 after the drought. The drought was real "here" - yields reflected the short crop. Usda yield trend line showed crop significantly below trend.
So, my question is.... 2019 crop was a little bit below trend line but not nearly to the extent as 2012 (looking at WiTitan2 graph from 2 days ago). Basis "here" was stabile during harvest... never really collapsed.... but never really seasonally improved during the first 2 weeks of December either. Basis only improved around Christmas time and stayed strong through January.
so, is Brock "knowing" about the short 2019 crop simply through basis or something else? Or, was the "ah-hah" from spreads? Or, were the Farmers on NAT saying crop was short/light TW/ still in snow drifts to be harvested to be believed after all even though USDA yields didn't reflect it?
Somehow, I completely missed the "short 2019 crop". I completely did and want to ensure that I am paying attention next time? Esp. with a hedge and roll strategy where you/I am "banking" on a certain spread from Dec - March/Dec - May/Dec - July?
Thank you for any insight!
Edited by Baby Robin 7/1/2020 10:09
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Richard Brock - never store a short crop? (edit: 2019)
