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Ethanol update.
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JonSCKs
Posted 5/28/2020 20:04 (#8286158)
Subject: Ethanol update.


One Word.  "Improvement."

Not back to where we want to be.. but getting there.. slowly.

Ethanol production was up, blended was up, stocks were down and the burn rate was 788.3 k bbls/day.  The gap between now and last year on the grind closed to an "estimated" (give or take) 34 million bushels.. Still large.. still adding to the deficit but improving.

Implied disappearance.. not as blended gasoline is on par with last year.. and probably even though it's small sanitizer is probably helping us.  If we could just get some exports on the books that would also be nice.

I heard today that one of our new plants nearby was going to refire next week.. so it appears that everyone is getting back in the saddle.

Good report.. just need more improvement.

          Computed          
 Weekly Production      number to balanceComputedActualTotal Weekly bu  Weekly US  
Week Blenders InputImportsStocksCapacityResidual and exportsExportsExportsEthanolGrindVs Last yearChangeSupplied Finished 
 Ethanol k bbls/dayk bbls /dayk bbls /day k bbls k bbls k bbls /dayk bblsMonthlyEIAdemand   Motor Gasoline 
        37,936       2.85conversion  Ethanol as % of
                      
9/6/20191023 930 0 22,49959% 279.0 1953  1209.0105,531105,22130998079.48% 
9/13/20191003 905 11 23,23861% 3.4 24  908.4103,467108,419-4,952893910.12% 
9/20/2019943 935 113 22,50059% 226.4 1585  1161.497,278106,872-9,594934610.00% 
9/27/2019958 923 0 23,21961% -67.7 -47430882540855.398,825104,705-5,880913710.10% 
10/4/2019963 917 0 21,22456% 331.0 2317  1248.099,341107,284-7,94394609.69% 
10/11/2019971 942 0 22,06158% -90.6 -634  851.4100,166104,293-4,126935410.07% 
10/18/2019996 928 28 21,36456% 195.6 1369  1123.6102,745105,634-2,88895909.68% 
10/25/20191004 936 53 21,09956% 158.9 1112416426891094.9103,571109,244-5,67497849.57% 
11/1/20191014 917 0 21,87458% -13.7 -96  903.3104,602110,173-5,571914510.03% 
11/8/20191030 940 0 20,98555% 217.0 1519  1157.0106,253110,069-3,817932110.08% 
11/15/20191033 929 4 20,51454% 175.3 1227  1104.3106,562107,491-928919210.11% 
11/22/20191059 930 36 20,27753% 198.9 1392  1128.9109,244108,1091,135920410.10% 
11/29/20191060 902 11 20,63954% 117.3 821486325581019.3109,347110,276-92890329.99% 
12/6/20191072 858 66 21,81558% 112.0 784  970.0110,585107,9032,68288829.66% 
12/13/20191064 912 0 21,79857% 154.4 1081  1066.4109,760107,9031,85794119.69% 
12/20/20191083 938 0 21,46957% 192.0 1344  1130.0111,720107,4914,229930310.08% 
12/27/20191066 884 0 21,03455% 244.1 1709491834901128.1109,966104,2935,67489619.86% 
1/3/20201062 801 0 22,46259% 57.0 399  858.0109,554103,1586,39681339.85% 
1/10/20201095 854 25 23,00661% 188.3 1318  1042.3112,958108,4194,53985589.98% 
1/17/20201049 864 0 24,03163% 38.6 270  902.6108,213106,3561,85786629.97% 
1/24/20201029 873 0 24,24464% 125.6 879  998.6106,149104,3961,75487939.93% 
1/31/20201081 888 0 23,47462% 303.0 2121498736021191.0111,51499,75411,76089339.94% 
2/7/20201033 873 0 24,35864% 33.7 236  906.7106,562106,149413872210.01% 
2/14/20201040 896 0 24,78165% 83.6 585  979.6107,284102,7454,539891810.05% 
2/21/20201054 902 35 24,71865% 196.0 1372  1098.0108,728106,0462,68290359.98% 
2/28/20201079 897 0 24,96466% 146.9 10283221 1043.9111,307105,6345,67491869.76% 
3/6/20201044 919 9 24,33464% 224.0 1568  1143.0107,697103,6744,02394499.73% 
3/13/20201035 915 0 24,59865% 82.3 576  997.3106,768103,5713,19896969.44% 
3/20/20201005 874 0 24,14064% 196.4 1375  1070.4103,674100,5793,09588379.89% 
3/27/2020840 601 0 25,71768% 13.7 963615 614.786,653103,055-16,40266599.03% 
4/3/2020672 502 0 27,09171% -26.3 -184  475.769,322103,364-34,04250659.91% 
4/10/2020570 506 0 27,46972% 10.0 70  516.058,800104,808-46,00850819.96% 
4/17/2020563 523 0 27,68973% 8.6 60  531.658,078108,109-50,03253119.85% 
4/24/2020537 583 0 26,33769% 147.1 1030976 730.155,396105,634-50,23858609.95% 
5/1/2020598 595 0 25,61268% 106.6 746  701.661,688106,872-45,18366648.93% 
5/8/2020617 666 0 24,19064% 154.1 1079  820.163,648108,419-44,77173989.00% 
5/15/2020663 680 0 23,62662% 63.6 445  743.668,394110,482-42,088679010.01% 
5/22/2020724 712 0 23,17661% 76.3 5342804 788.374,686109,038-34,35272539.82% 
                      
19/20 MY 38 wks940.3 830.3 10.3 23358.662% 122.7 858.83626.22975.8953.097,001105,404-349,9128444.09.82% 
18/19 MY 38 wks1029.5 910.4 3.2 23342.262% 122.6 858.13678.63243.11033.0106,201109,030 9176.79.93% 
                      15 byn target: 978.0            -9,200.1-3,626    
19/20 vs 18/19-8.7% -8.8% 2 0.1%  0.1% 0.1%-1.4%-8.2%-7.8%-8.7%-47,143bu lower-8.0%-1.0% 
   -15.1%        estimatedReported      
 1057 948 Last year22624.0yr ago   1543  1168   939410.09% 

 

Cheers.

Weekly production number http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=w_epooxe_yop_nus_mbbld&f=w

Weekly Blenders Input.. http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=w_epooxe_yir_nus_mbbld&f=w

Weekly Imports of Ethanol http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPOOXE_IM0_NUS-Z00_MBBLD&f=W

Weekly Stocks number http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPOOXE_SAE_NUS_MBBL&f=W

Weekly US Product Supplied of Finished Motor Gasoline http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WGFUPUS2&f=W

Monthly US Exports of Ethanol http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=M_EPOOXE_EEX_NUS-Z00_MBBL&f=M

 

Ethanol Supply and Disposition https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/PET_SUM_SND_A_EPOOXE_MBBL_M_CUR.htm





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