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NW Indiana | Is there some coincidences going on? A wedge forming in beans, December 3rd the date for the other MFP payment annoucemnt, G-20 etc. I don't think all of this is lining up by coincidence. For the last several weeks the bulls and bears have been battling to figure out price. With some potential major market implications looming we have formed a wedge. Likely price is to high by 30-50 cents if no improved outlook on the trade war. If there is a break through and china is going to start buying we are likely 30-50 too low. What looks to be an interesting setup is that we likely won't know until sunday night what the market thinks of the conclusion of the G-20. Factor in that it if no deal is likely anytime soon we are probably going to see another 82.5 cents announced on Monday which I think the market would take as bearish. So no deal, another round of MFP, and technicals from breaking the wedge and we could run sharply lower fairly quick. The flip side would be that the trade is optimistic something is going to get worked out with china, maybe less MFP(can the usda really react Monday morning????) and breaking some technical resistance up maybe we shoot up more than we should.
Does anyone like playing roulette? | |
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Monday-soybeans
