With grain prices in the tank and since they have been for a while, I think land values will start to fall substantially like we saw in '81 - '85 because the rents sure aren't going to be sustainable.  Investors will be trying to salvage their investment by getting out and I'm sure farmers aren't going to be able to either pay high rents or land payments very long on sub cash flow.

I expect to see land drop by half in the next couple years unless we see a substantial and sustained improvement in grain prices.  The break even and operating losses have not been tolerated for very long in the past........    not typically for more than one year...   and we are there now.

Personally, I quit buying land when it skyrocketed with the high corn price and I still don't feel comfortable buying land that won't return more than 1-2% on the investment after taxes and insurance.  The argument is made that the inflation of land makes it a sound investment long term, but I don't see inflation being an issue from the prices we have seen the last 3 years.